# Inflation!



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

I just bought some 4/4 walnut today from the lumberyard.

It's gone up a good 30% over a year ago. Same with the 4'x8' sheets of cardboard I use to make cartons.

While the inflation across the whole economy is probably temporary due to covid, my guess is that lumber isn't going back down.

I'm still in shock…


----------



## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Hardwood lumber has been fairly stable price wise for years. Sooner or later, it had to go up.


----------



## Moai (Feb 9, 2009)

94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and "mandates" is sending America through the drain hole.


----------



## Unknowncraftsman (Jun 23, 2013)

Oh I think it's likely to get worse before it gets better. That's what happens when the lunatics are loose and running the insane asylum.
Most Americans don't even notice what happening and think it's going to get better because trumps not able to tweet. 
Good Luck everyone


----------



## kelvancra (May 4, 2010)

It's not going to get better, in my opinion, anymore than I'm going to be making the equivalent of my 1974 purchase of a two story house, with a drive in basement, with a view of the King Dome and Needle for 21k.

Damage is damage. The more money these scum and idiots print, the more existing nickles loose their value. It's said great grandpa's envelope with a thousand dollars in it for you is, now, worth less than one hundred bucks.


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

Inflation is through the roof but I don't believe Covid was the actual cause. I'm of the opinion that the financial problems behind the meltdown of 2008 were never fixed and increasing debt, trade deficits and loose monetary policy are biting back. The fun will last until other countries stop accepting US bonds and giving us the goods we need to fuel the trade deficit. Covid just provides a convenient excuse to establish economic controls, pour money into the system and prop it up for awhile longer.

I subscribe to one simple economic policy. In order to eat pie, someone must bake a pie. Clever methods of slicing up the pie into smaller pieces won't feed more people.

In 10 year of running the business, I've never raised prices on my customers until this year. Now I'm raising prices on most clients almost every new order they place. We operate on a lean, continuous improvement model and that used to be enough to cover higher expenses each year. Not anymore.

Plywood and hardwood costs are close to double what they were last year. I've converted most billing forms to separate labor and materials and the clients pay actual material costs. So far everyone agrees to the increases because they're either going to pay me higher prices, pay someone else even more or not get any product at all.


----------



## SMP (Aug 29, 2018)

> 94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and "mandates" is sending America through the drain hole.
> 
> - Francisco Luna-Posada


What question? You seem to be projecting your beliefs into something that is isn't there lol.

OP, when I was a kid, I would ride my bike to Thriftys and get an ice cream cone. 5 cents a cone. guess i should have stocked up back then. But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.

It's depressing as hell to see how people just know so many things - loudly - that happen to be totally incorrect.

We're in the middle of a raging pandemic that has killed millions of people and is killing a couple of thousand Americans every day. That has affected the supply chain.

And masks?! They save lives, for heaven's sake! Not wearing masks is prolonging this! Stop listening to propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you'll vote for them - that this isn't really happening, so mask mandates are just being put in place by people who want to hassle you for no good reason. Sorry, it is happening.

Kelly, your economic story is that this is because there's too much money in circulation. That could be plausible during normal times, but right now it's the wrong diagnosis. If that were the case, the inflation would be across the board. But it's scattered - not everything is higher. Again, this is a temporary supply issue.

What you're right about is that inflation is hard to put back in the bottle, because prices are set in advance. But it's not because of fools printing too much money. Just like medicine, the right economic policy responses change with the condition.

"Printing money" (mainly in the form of very low interest rates) during the Great Recession didn't case inflation, for instance. Why?


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

> But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.
> - SMP


It may vary by state but in the Chicago area, hard maple is the biggest mover and the latest batch of 500bf priced at $5.49/bf. Last year it averaged around $2.75/bf. Cherry has also moved past $4/bf (up from around $3.25/bf).

Supplier told me poplar is the other species jumping in price and last month it was around $3/bf which would have been an 80 cent rise.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> 94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and "mandates" is sending America through the drain hole.
> 
> - Francisco Luna-Posada
> 
> ...


That's interesting.

And it checks out with what the woman at the lumberyard said - that the price of other woods goes down if you buy 50BF, but not walnut.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> But tbh, walnut has gone up much more than other woods like maple and oak due to china buying more walnut.
> - SMP
> 
> It may vary by state but in the Chicago area, hard maple is the biggest mover and the latest batch of 500bf priced at $5.49/bf. Last year it averaged around $2.75/bf. Cherry has also moved past $4/bf (up from around $3.25/bf).
> ...


Hm. So maybe it does vary by state.

There's also the "because they can" factor, of course. Right now there's a lot of building in CA, so maybe the demand for lumber is higher.

I have no idea. Interesting question, though.


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

wake up man where you been,it's reality.i sell construction hardware,and nails and other building materials.weve been hit with increases of over 50% in the last several months.lumber is a commodity product it rises and falls,it's dropped a lot for framing lumber lately but may go up again.this is reality,blame it on what you want.your response seems very naieve !


----------



## Unknowncraftsman (Jun 23, 2013)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> It s depressing as hell to see how people just know so many things - loudly - that happen to be totally incorrect.
> 
> ...


Nick you sound just like the morning news.


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> And masks?! They save lives, for heaven s sake! Not wearing masks is prolonging this! Stop listening to propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you ll vote for them
> 
> Kelly, your economic story is that this is because there s too much money in circulation. That could be plausible during normal times, but right now it s the wrong diagnosis. If that were the case, the inflation would be across the board. But it s scattered - not everything is higher. Again, this is a temporary supply issue.
> 
> ...


mask saves lives? you sure that's not propaganda spewed by people who tell you what you want to hear so that you ll vote for them? I'm not a 'right wing woodworker'

Fiat currency didn't exist in the 1930's. Couldn't print. See Nixon, Bretton Woods II and what followed

Maybe not everything is higher, but 
- oil up 55%,
- natural gas up 122%,
- food up 33%,
- shipping costs up 225% in '21;
- past 6-months US CPI up 7.6% (annualized),
- core CPI up 6.8%,
- wages 4.9%
- cotton 28% (9 yr high)
- bacon 28% (40 year high)
-


----------



## bruc101 (Sep 13, 2008)

My wife is a recently retired surgeon. She told us last flu season, flue cases were down over 50% because people were wearing mask. I have not and still have no problem wearing a mask, and I do when I get out of my truck at any store. I usually end up wearing one just about everyday in my shop, so no big deal, and I didn't get my normal case of the flue last winter. Everyone in my family and all of our employees are also fully vaccinated.

As far as lumber prices. I bought 12 boards of premium white pine shelving boards at HD last week for a lot less than what I normally get no# 2 from our lumber vendor now.


----------



## kelvancra (May 4, 2010)

It is indisputable the current damage to our economy is complements of decisions by government agents at all levels.

It is disputable peoples choices regarding masks, six foot distancing, for profit drugs that do not do what they were said to do and so on are responsible for our current problems.

As I indicated, I've been around a while and have seen the inflation game first hand, over many decades. Never once did everything go up all at once.

As to our promissory notes (Federal Reserve Notes) we call dollars, they are tied to something, or they aren't.

If tied to something, that something could be gold, petrol, or other thing the availability which is a finite resource or availability, even as bit coin is.

If not tied to something tangible, its arbitrarily agreed to value could even be tied to secret backroom deals by public agents, promising to compromise the assets of the American people

History is replete with examples of fools and the corrupt in government diluting dollars to the point money became worthless. A couple of those examples are fresh. Some involve private entities and some are public.

Inflation has many sources:

- One is, dilution of the dollar by printing more money is just one. Increasing taxes, however called, is another

- No business can survive without passing on the costs of the business, whether the cost is licenses, taxes, permits, materials, labor or what have you. If those things go up, the increased cost has to be passed on. If not sooner, later.

- Some inflation is nothing more than people taking advantage of a situation. Selling used items for more than they would have sold for a given time before, for example (which makes since if you have to replace product for future sales).

- . . . .

It is known certain governments took advantage of their ability to manipulate the value of their dollar to allow them to, essentially, pay back less than they originally owed. This was talked of by people far more learned that most or all of us here.

We could go on and on, but, in the end, not everything we are seeing can be blamed on covid.


----------



## kelvancra (May 4, 2010)

That makes me cringe. It is one of the very claims being used by our agents to alter our lives. However, the CDC quit counting cases. That and that the PCR tests that produced millions of false positives not distinguishing between covid (or C-1.0 or C-2.0) and flu is the only reason cases are "down."



> My wife is a recently retired surgeon. She told us last flu season, flue cases were down over 50% because people were wearing mask.
> 
> - bruc101


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

social media and he new on local tvs and national has driven an avenue of fear mongering, and ill advised advise on how o protect yourself, the agenda is very clear ;;;; CONTROL


----------



## SMP (Aug 29, 2018)

Lumberjocks. Where old farts manage to turn any discussion about wood political.


----------



## kelvancra (May 4, 2010)

I see that statement often. Almost always, is shows up after someone made a statement, left unchallenged, could be construed as fact, but which other facts show it not to be.


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

It's near impossible to have any discussion about rising wood [business] costs without at least a minimal allusion to politics. It's important to have some sense of what's happening and what to expect. I'm planning for hard times ahead and most of the people I know are doing the same. The USA is slowly losing its former status as the undisputed leader of military and economic power. That means more competition for resources and we're going to feel it.

But at least I'm non-partisan and am willing to share the blame with every administration going back to before I was born.

My recommendation is that people abandon hope that the Feds or the states are going to be of much help. Feds are too busy fighting over how to divide the shrinking pie to be of use to anybody.

Focus on being productive and developing relationships with local people that are productive. Local economies and local supply chains are going to be critical for the well-being of communities if the USD loses status as the world's reserve currency or if China starts putting limits on exports of critical resources.

If the local sawyer decides to retire, I'm probably going to make an offer on his sawmill.


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

hey the guys talking about the increase in wood,if you dont want it to be about politics dont go their ?


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> It s depressing as hell to see how people just know so many things - loudly - that happen to be totally incorrect.
> 
> ...


And left wing bias.


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

nickbatz

Walnut.

Supply and demand and in recent years walnut blight has been a problem.

It's getting difficult to get walnut logs over 8 feet in lengths.

https://www.cabinetjoint.com/2021/03/walnut-shortages/

I BLAME MOST PROBLEMS ON OUR POLITICIANS. BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT. IT'S TOTAL BS TO BLAME ONE SIDE.


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Inflation, its not a political equation, Its too many dollars chasing too few of goods. We have it now and we are told it is temporary but that view is starting to morph just like two weeks to flatten the curve. I run a business and due to my material increases I must raise my prices daily. I am checking the price on each item as I quote the work.

Masks, everybody loves them and "they save lives" but nobody has any data on that. We as woodworkers should know more about masks than most other than heath care workers maybe. It bothers me that there is no guideline on how effective a mask needs to be only that you employ a face covering. When I wear one my glasses fog up from air that is bypassing the mask. Knowing how the particulate size is for a virus and what a mask can filter, I think many are over estimating how much protection they provide. This can also be described as a false sense of security. My analogy is you can shoot me with a squirt gun though a screen door and while it is technically true that the screen blocks some of the water, I will still get wet. Now put your mask on and I will stand next to you and let loose a heinous fart, no worries, your protected.


----------



## Clarkie (May 11, 2013)

Covid is an excuse not a reason. They need to see how far they can push the monkey and most have fallen into the foolishness. Buy the lumber and pass the price on or refuse to buy and see if anyone else catches on.


----------



## jonah (May 15, 2009)

Any chance we could keep the political BS in the political BS area?


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

and according to a few vendors i sometimes deal with, here in Az, prices are gonna sky rocket, mostly supposedly due to transportation as we don't have a whole lot of real large mills in state, ever since spotted owl crap, they pretty much destroyed the lumber mills in the mountains
rj in az


----------



## bruc101 (Sep 13, 2008)

> Any chance we could keep the political BS in the political BS area?
> 
> - jonah


I'll second that one.


----------



## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> Hardwood lumber has been fairly stable price wise for years. Sooner or later, it had to go up.
> 
> - ibewjon


True this, but prices on so many products have gone through the roof since Covid, and on many of them there hasn't been a clear correlation to Covid itself. Makes it look like people in all industries are using Covid to give themselves a pay raise. In the greater sense I've nothing against that, but I know it's not the makers, and workers getting paid, it's the damn middlemen. Blood suckers of the highest order.


----------



## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> Hm. So maybe it does vary by state.
> 
> - nickbatz


Of course it does. A person living in a state where the trees grow will always pay less than a person who has to add a XYZ% transportation charge, not to mention the afore mentioned middlemen. Most of whom don't touch, or actually physically interact with the product, just make phone calls and such. Yet at the end of the road they get 4 times what the guy got, that pulled the tree out of the forest, and cut it up. It doesn't matter if the guy cutting the wood is a Republican, Democrat, or Independent either. The middlemen also come in all political flavors as well.


----------



## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

And trees only grow so fast. There is a limit on how many we can cut each year. By a mill? Great, but you need the logs or the mill is scrap iron. Sam's and Costco can't keep a steady supply of chickens to roast.


----------



## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> nickbatz
> 
> Walnut.
> 
> ...


Supply and demand is what makes prices go up and down, not which party is in office. If you think it's too high, don't buy it. If nobody buys it, the price will go back down. This is Econ 101.

Like it or not we are part of a GLOBAL market now. Buyers of our products from other countries are often more than happy to pay 3 to 5 times what we "want" to pay for something, so there went your cheap Walnut. It all just got shipped to Asia.


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

It is just a strange time and you can cast blame wherever you like but I don't see anyone making more profit. I go past a car lot and there are no cars to sell, think how many companies and workers are making no profit. I am in the security and fire alarm business and I can't buy a two wire smoke detector anywhere. Had a church lose two panels after a lightning strike and there are no panels to replace their life safety systems. From what I can see it is going to get worse. I would blame someone or thing but I have no idea who. All I can say is I don't understand it but I can see and feel it. So back to the OP, if hardwood is about the same "cost" everything or everyone who must cut, mill, transport or sell it are having their cost go up, so hard wood must do the same. A customer of mine always had sign in his office "A job without profit is a donation."


----------



## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

The worlds economy and supply chain was rocked. It will take some time to even out and get things back to normal.

In some ways companies are a victim of their own success in terms of efficiency. "Just in time" looks great and is great when everything is flowing. But when supplies stop/run short, it looks like a dumpster fire.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Nick you sound just like the morning news.
> 
> - Aj2


I wish the morning news sounded like me.

Seriously!


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Hm. So maybe it does vary by state.
> 
> - nickbatz
> 
> ...


Right, but that's always. I'm wondering whether the percentage of the increase is a lot higher in some places - like here.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Masks, everybody loves them and "they save lives" but nobody has any data on that.
> - controlfreak


https://www.nih.gov/masks-save-lives

What do you mean there's no data on that?

More fundamentally, how could something that blocks airborne droplets not save lives from a sometimes-fatal virus that's transmitted through airborne droplets?


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> Masks, everybody loves them and "they save lives" but nobody has any data on that.
> - controlfreak
> 
> https://www.nih.gov/masks-save-lives
> ...


+1 people are gonna believe what they want .ive followed the recommendations and so far im good.if more people did this pandemic would be winding down.seems the ones that dont complain the most.


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

Best case scenerio is that masks delay the inevitable.

Covid is endemic throughout the world by now and everyone is going to get it sooner or later. Cross-species infection has been confirmed with many animals so the virus is present amongst the wildlife such as white-tailed deer, pets such as cats and dogs and livestock including pigs and rabbits.

Covid is unstoppable. New Zealand despite being an isolated island and enforcing strict control failed. Gibraltar achieved the coveted 99% vaccination rate, failed and got placed on the CDC's high risk travel category.

I am not aware of any sterilizing vaccines available for Covid so even with 100% inoculation rates, Covid will still infect people and run freely through the human and animal population. Vaccinated people will just have milder symptoms (or none at all).

Pfizer submitted an FDA application for booster approval based upon evidence that Comirnaty starts losing effectiveness within months and recipients become susceptible to severe illness less than a year after the double shot.

Most of us have already gotten it. My employees got it from their relatives months ago and I probably got Delta myself (along with most of my nearby relations) though I never lost my sense of smell so I can't be sure. Relatives in Texas have it now and I'm pretty sure they are vaccinated (never asked) since one member of the family works on a military base.

The point is that the virus is here to stay and people can either fear it or move on with life. All things considered, everyone is lucky the virus is pretty weak. I'd have never known it existed if I didn't read the news. It had zero impact on my relatives, friends, clients and neighbors. The local hospitals aren't filled. A local funeral home director didn't notice any surge in deaths. Something like the Spanish flu would have killed 10% of the people I know.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Best case scenerio is that masks delay the inevitable.
> 
> Covid is endemic throughout the world by now and everyone is going to get it sooner or later. Cross-species infection has been confirmed with many animals so the virus is present amongst the wildlife such as white-tailed deer, pets such as cats and dogs and livestock including pigs and rabbits.
> 
> ...


Misinformation. Please do not believe.

Everyone is going to get exposed to the virus (most likely), not everyone is going to get covid (the disease). Those who are vaccinated have far more immunity; people wearing masks will get a much lower dose of the virus and are far less likely to get sick.

Stop posting garbage that kills people, please.


----------



## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

@JAAune

I think your an anomaly. I live a pretty isolated life. Probably don't talk to 30 different people. Live in a rural town in the middle of a corn field.

Even I know of 3 healthy people that died. All under 70, one under 50. Probably a dozen more that were on ventilators. Our local hospital has been at capacity once for sure and I think the second is coming.


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

Inflation lol,

Lets just hope Evergrande has a good outcome. If not, we will be feeling the aftershocks for many years to come. 
If the printing of more $$ doesn't stop, well, most know where we are headed. Possibly into minus interest
rates… 
We thought the Lehman brothers, along with a few others was bad… Wait… Evergrande will be devastating.

Move your money into precious metals and sit tight haha.
Most of us have learned to ride the highs and pedal through the lows over the years. I feel many will be peddling for years, if the next few months don't shake out properly.
Unfortunately, I think darker days are on the horizon..

Gary


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

I don't mingle with many people but I do stay in contact with many people. Within my immediate contacts there's 1 death from a car accident (she was tested for Covid but test was negative), one from type 2 diabetes complications. One child cause unknown and under investigation and one elderly man whose cause of death I wasn't told.

I don't know anyone that hasn't gotten the flu at least once and Covid is supposed to be more contagious than the flu. Anyone that thinks they'll live at least another 10 years and dodge the Covid is being overly optimistic. H1N1 is still a thing and I'd estimate the vast majority of posters here have been infected with it at some point or another. Luckily, it's not the killer it was in 1918.

Nick, you're going have to do better than that. The information I posted can be verified from Pfizer, the FDA and the CDC. If you don't trust those sources, then everything becomes misinformation. Heathcare officials have known since day 1 that Covid would become endemic. It's only politicians that pretended it could be eradicated.

Edit: Almost forgot the deaths of two other people. Not covid but due to long-term health issues.


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

horse feathers


----------



## EarlS (Dec 21, 2011)

I just skipped most of the name calling and politics.

I stopped by my local sawmill a couple weeks back to get some cherry and walnut. Their wood all comes from local trees (IA & IL - within 100 miles). They are a big shop, selling domestically and internationally, but also selling locally for little DIY guys like me. Nothing in their costs had increased but the boards were 25-30% higher than they were in May. I asked they guy why their prices had jumped so much. He was blunt: "because we can raise prices and none of our big customers object". He knocked 10% off my price since I've been buying from them for almost 15 years.


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> @JAAune
> 
> I think your an anomaly. I live a pretty isolated life. Probably don't talk to 30 different people. Live in a rural town in the middle of a corn field.
> 
> ...


he must live in oz or someplace magical not in the real world where i live.my warehouse foreman lost two inlaws to the virus,my salesman just lost his grandfather and my wife knows 6 people she went to school with that have died due to it.hospitals here were swamped last winter at the peak.funerals were delayed for months backed up.we have numerous friends that have dealt with it.i hate when people say.it's just the flu.it's talk like that that has made this worse than it could have been.get real.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Nick, you re going have to do better than that. The information I posted can be verified from Pfizer, the FDA and the CDC. If you don t trust those sources, then everything becomes misinformation. Heathcare officials have known since day 1 that Covid would become endemic. It s only politicians that pretended it could be eradicated.
> 
> Edit: Almost forgot the deaths of two other people. Not covid but due to long-term health issues.
> 
> - JAAune


100% it won't be eradicated, nor did I say it would. We're still seeing variants of the 1918 flu.

What I said is that not everyone is going to get covid - the disease. We will all be exposed to the virus, most likely.

If you're vaxed, you have a far better chance of fighting off the virus before you get sick. Then if you do get sick, you're far less likely to get very sick. And if you have a booster - as I'm going to in four days, when i qualify - you are even less likely to get sick.

And masks really do save lives.


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> Nick, you re going have to do better than that. The information I posted can be verified from Pfizer, the FDA and the CDC. If you don t trust those sources, then everything becomes misinformation. Heathcare officials have known since day 1 that Covid would become endemic. It s only politicians that pretended it could be eradicated.
> 
> Edit: Almost forgot the deaths of two other people. Not covid but due to long-term health issues.
> 
> ...


+1 thank you nick.you could say everyone is gonna get the common flu too.i have never had the flu,but i get a flu shot every year.


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

Apparently Illinois is magical land. Imagine that.

Maybe hospitals in Illinois are better organized or have better treatment regimens for Covid patients. Or maybe we have sufficient infrastructure to support the population. When the employees and their families got it, the doctors just prescribed steroids and 2 weeks at home. Everybody regardless of age recovered fine though the loss of smell thing did take longer to reverse.

Other than a short period where the governor required hospitals to close for non-emergencies, I've not heard of anyone getting delayed treatment for anything. The woman involved in the car accident was driven to the local hospital then airlifted to Champaign as soon as they assessed her injuries. The funeral happened as fast as the relatives could organize it and get together.

Whatever is happening, the people in this area must be doing something right. We're just down the interstate from Chicago and are not isolated from the rest of humanity at all. Mask wearing is the same here as it is everywhere else. Most people wear them in public, a few don't. Every business has been open since July or so last year.


----------



## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

I know no one who hasn't lost at least one family member. I've been vaccinated for a while now, April I believe, and still wear a mask whenever I go out. I got the Moderna dose, so if they say I should get another I will.

I used to have to get an annual flu shot or I couldn't work. Since retiring I've said keep the flu shot, I never used to get it over 25 years in the ER, as soon as they made me start getting it, I started getting the flu, every stinking year. I don't know what that means, or if it means anything at all, but if you can't see the writing on the wall, I can't help you. Flu killed people in the past, but back then childbirth was the leading cause of death for a Female too.

This is here, and now, Governments, not just ours, but virtually everywhere closed the doors with this stuff, when did a flu, plague, or whatever do that? Ever? I plan to do what they tell me to, just as my parents did when I was young, and vaccines were given to all of us kids. If I get a "chip" implanted, first I'm going to be surprised they would waste the chip, I'm pretty boring, and secondly they won't get much information. LMAO…..


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Nick, you re going have to do better than that. The information I posted can be verified from Pfizer, the FDA and the CDC. If you don t trust those sources, then everything becomes misinformation. Heathcare officials have known since day 1 that Covid would become endemic. It s only politicians that pretended it could be eradicated.
> 
> Edit: Almost forgot the deaths of two other people. Not covid but due to long-term health issues.
> 
> ...


Thanks, and of course I left out the other important point: you're protecting everyone else from getting sick too!


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> Nick, you re going have to do better than that. The information I posted can be verified from Pfizer, the FDA and the CDC. If you don t trust those sources, then everything becomes misinformation. Heathcare officials have known since day 1 that Covid would become endemic. It s only politicians that pretended it could be eradicated.
> 
> Edit: Almost forgot the deaths of two other people. Not covid but due to long-term health issues.
> 
> ...


yes.at least those that care about something other than their own selfish interests.


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

> nickbatz
> 
> Walnut.
> 
> ...





> nickbatz
> 
> Walnut.
> 
> ...


" not which party is in office." Where did I say that?


----------



## Unknowncraftsman (Jun 23, 2013)

The pandemic has gone on far too long. The lock downs became worse then the problem. 
Now we have a bunch of public health officials that don't want to give up the power they think they have.
Mandates and rules have been pushed into people using fear. Scientists and big pharmaceutical have our politicians on strings like puppets.
I see what's happening 100s of thousands people pouring in the country with more rights and freedom then taxpayers. The pandemic is over. Proof is in the actions of the DHS. The words means nothing it's all about money and control.


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

> Inflation, its not a political equation, Its too many dollars chasing too few of goods. We have it now and we are told it is temporary but that view is starting to morph just like two weeks to flatten the curve. I run a business and due to my material increases I must raise my prices daily. I am checking the price on each item as I quote the work.
> 
> Masks, everybody loves them and "they save lives" but nobody has any data on that. We as woodworkers should know more about masks than most other than heath care workers maybe. It bothers me that there is no guideline on how effective a mask needs to be only that you employ a face covering. When I wear one my glasses fog up from air that is bypassing the mask. Knowing how the particulate size is for a virus and what a mask can filter, I think many are over estimating how much protection they provide. This can also be described as a false sense of security. My analogy is you can shoot me with a squirt gun though a screen door and while it is technically true that the screen blocks some of the water, I will still get wet. Now put your mask on and I will stand next to you and let loose a heinous fart, no worries, your protected.
> 
> - controlfreak


Its too many dollars chasing too few of goods. I agree completely with that. And of course it is not the only reason. But the question is….....why do we have too many dollars chasing to few goods?


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> Its too many dollars chasing too few of goods. I agree completely with that. And of course it is not the only reason. But the question is….....why do we have too many dollars chasing to few goods?
> 
> - AlaskaGuy


12th year of saving wall st to save main st.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

> horse feathers
> 
> - Knockonit


Willing to trade,
I have a beautiful chinesium horse ball without laces.


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

I'm still stuck on Inflation…

However, First off let's just throw this out their. My money is no good…

Anyone have any extra coal. Just give me , minus interest rates and we will call it good. ? Its going to get brrrrrrrr here in the north.

Recently.. Imagine that..

My neighbors just north of me said they were going to get cold without coal too.. So we used my "GET SMART" code of silence contraption, lowered it, discussed it, just waiting for the response to come through….. Just a few technical difficulties that we are working on.

This is where things get funny since late 2018.. Shhhhhhhhhhhh, I may have it mixed up with something else.
Sooooo, Let's proceed with caution… Just stay calm and be quiet damit!! We are working on how to fix all this while the war games are underway.. We have loads of printers with loads of ink .

Now where were we, OH, yeah , I'm looking for coal at this very moment!! Sooo, lets get back on track…

I'm double vaxed, 2 different but special doses with more on the way, have mask and face shield.. So just come over, we will work something out.

A side note. I haven't been able to get a new script for my glasses, so, be patient. I'm going to feel my way around it. 
I have drone parking but… Bat mobiles go to the underground parking please, All warships need to park out in my pool. Well, I think its my pool.

We meet in the board room at half past 8, I also have a beautiful evergrande model that I've turned into a coffee maker/bakery. 
Everyone will get fed… ( I THINK )
But, not everyone is going to get the model. Double vaxed first. We will try to get to the rest of y'al soon, just stay calm and quiet and don't go anywhere till we tell ya where to go!!

How did this thread begin??
INFLATION…. ^^^^^^^^^ Just not in that order haha.


----------



## 280305 (Sep 28, 2008)

I will never buy a SawStop! Steve Gass is a crook!

Oops, wrong argument.


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

> I will never buy a SawStop! Steve Gass is a crook!
> 
> Oops, wrong argument.
> 
> ...


I was going to comment up thread but realized this was getting close to a political dumpster fire and thought it best to let it go. The funny thing is that ^^^this is what I thought of, I enjoyed it, thank you!

I must admit the saw stop opening made me look at your post count, if it was less than five I wouldn't have clicked but at 3434 you looked safe enough to to take a look.


----------



## 280305 (Sep 28, 2008)

> I was going to comment up thread but realized this was getting close to a political dumpster fire and thought it best to let it go. The funny thing is that ^^^this is what I thought of, I enjoyed it, thank you!
> 
> I must admit the saw stop opening made me look at your post count, if it was less than five I wouldn t have clicked but at 3434 you looked safe enough to to take a look.
> 
> - controlfreak


Of course I might have spent the last 13 years as a member here all as a setup for this very chance to get someone to click on a dodgy link!


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

Perfect timing chuckv & controlfreak,

I'm taking arguments at $1800./min, sorry for the inflation.
Now don't worry, I'm considering coming up with minus interest rates for those that have spent their own money foolishly and cannot afford to keep up with on going interest payments on any previously acquired items.

Before the air waves go down, please start investing in *%[email protected]^& currency to have at your disposal. 
Until the next time…. BE SAFE

Copy that,
Over n Out


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

I forgot 1 thing… Please be sure to stay tuned in for next week… albeit, new program special on a new programmed channel.

I will be "SELLING HORIZONTAL AIR SPACE" as far as the eye can see. Just Think.. drone parking, nothin' else or this isn't going to work.
In preparation for this, you must tune in to be prepared. 
Just have the doc's below ready;

The square footage around your dwelling. 
ALL updates to the dwelling, out buildings , crawl spaces, underground cold storage rooms etc etc… with all contents described. Oh, sorry, We also need you Latitude, longitude with sea level coordinates. 
Please, we need an accurate assessment. 
This can be done in Sketchup. No worries, if you don't have Sketchup we may be able to assist you. 
Just buy in, we will figure the bugs out later.

Now, 
Within' this air space, at this very low cost with minus interest rates you will also get…. Plenty or drone parking, but wait, here is more.

A no fly zone around you camp so the drone's are safe. 
But… more importantly. 
A year supply of our latest "BATMOBILE ARESOL REPELENT" to keep them pests away from getting to your gardens etc etc. 
The directions are on the can, so be sure to read it if legible. 
This space comes with a full 1 day, 24-7 monitoring system back "BUY" a 365 day agreement if everyone buys in.

We are now switching to CB handle, XM-654321 on the air way.

Cheers,
Gary @ Pieintheskysafetytrakers


----------



## Phil32 (Aug 31, 2018)

My recent projects in black walnut were done using wood from an old bookshelf from my sister. Her husband had built the bookshelf 70 years ago - solid wood dowelled together. She gave it to me when she moved into a place without space for such a bookshelf. The price was wonderful and hasn't gone up in the last twelve years.


----------



## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> I will never buy a SawStop! Steve Gass is a crook!
> 
> Oops, wrong argument.
> 
> ...


LMAO, good one Chuck.

Ditto the dodgy link


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> The pandemic has gone on far too long. The lock downs became worse then the problem.
> Now we have a bunch of public health officials that don't want to give up the power they think they have.
> Mandates and rules have been pushed into people using fear. Scientists and big pharmaceutical have our politicians on strings like puppets.
> I see what's happening 100s of thousands people pouring in the country with more rights and freedom then taxpayers. The pandemic is over. Proof is in the actions of the DHS. The words means nothing it's all about money and control.
> ...


Something like 2000 people are dying every day and over 700,000 people have died in the US alone, and the best guess is a wide range of between 7 and 13 million people worldwide https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-been-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic.

America isn't divided over politics, it's divided between sane and utterly insane.


----------



## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

I just looked at the price list for domestic lumber at a place I get it. They carry dozens of domestic and exotic wood species. Great place to visit and good prices I think for this stuff. I haven't seen a price increase in a couple of years in pretty much anything. Even the cabinet grade plywoods they carry .

Here's their price list for domestics. They're in NH.


----------



## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

I just looked at the price list for domestic lumber at a place I get it. They carry dozens of domestic and exotic wood species. Great place to visit and good prices I think for this stuff. I haven't seen a price increase in a couple of years in pretty much anything. Even the cabinet grade plywoods they carry .

Here's their price list for domestics. They're in NH.


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> The pandemic has gone on far too long. The lock downs became worse then the problem.
> Now we have a bunch of public health officials that don't want to give up the power they think they have.
> Mandates and rules have been pushed into people using fear. Scientists and big pharmaceutical have our politicians on strings like puppets.
> I see what's happening 100s of thousands people pouring in the country with more rights and freedom then taxpayers. The pandemic is over. Proof is in the actions of the DHS. The words means nothing it's all about money and control.
> ...


+1 yet people still think it's a political scam of some kind.i just do what i can to protect myself and the rest choose dying if they want.if it's real or not,im not gonna risk my health and life for a maybe !


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> I just looked at the price list for domestic lumber at a place I get it. They carry dozens of domestic and exotic wood species. Great place to visit and good prices I think for this stuff. I haven t seen a price increase in a couple of years in pretty much anything. Even the cabinet grade plywoods they carry .
> 
> Here s their price list for domestics. They re in NH.
> 
> - Craftsman on the lake


Okay, but their 4/4 walnut is $14.58 a board foot.

I didn't ask how much it was per bf (because I needed it regardless of the price), but it was way less than that even at the inflated price.


----------



## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

> I just looked at the price list for domestic lumber at a place I get it. They carry dozens of domestic and exotic wood species. Great place to visit and good prices I think for this stuff. I haven t seen a price increase in a couple of years in pretty much anything. Even the cabinet grade plywoods they carry .
> 
> Here s their price list for domestics. They re in NH.
> 
> ...


Actually you looked at the special at the top of the page for curly walnut. Look down the page. Black Walnut 4/4 is $10.10 bd/ft


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Actually you looked at the special at the top of the page for curly walnut. Look down the page. Black Walnut 4/4 is $10.10 bd/ft
> 
> - Craftsman on the lake


Ah, got it.

Well, I just looked at my receipt. It was $11 for 4/4 S3S, and of course everything is more expensive in Los Angeles. Last time it was about $8 - that"s 1/3 higher, which adds up when you're buying 50 bf!

I just spoke to the guy at the lumberyard to ask about other kinds of wood (for a project I'm pricing), and he said the main reason for the increase was simply that they didn't cut enough trees - and it's not just walnut, although that's the worst. His opinion was that the prices will at least stabilize early next year.

And yes, it was because of covid - again, in his opinion, but he's buying the wood so he'd know.


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

> 94 views to this question, only one Line long comment. I guess all people know what really is going on, but nobody wants to talk about it. All this BS of masks and "mandates" is sending America through the drain hole.
> 
> - Francisco Luna-Posada
> 
> ...


There is a virus or fungus attacking walnut trees not that cannot be killed off. An arborist told my brother his tree probably has it ;-(( Expect walnut shortages They say not to use infected wood for woodworking because that may spread it.


----------



## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

> Actually you looked at the special at the top of the page for curly walnut. Look down the page. Black Walnut 4/4 is $10.10 bd/ft
> 
> - Craftsman on the lake
> 
> ...


----------



## AGolden (Mar 22, 2020)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> - nickbatz


Seriously that is what I thought! I clicked on this thread innocently thinking I was going to see/comment on how much everyone is getting walnut for (~$13/bdft for 8/4 for me btw)

I had no idea it would suddenly get really heated and political.


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> - nickbatz
> 
> ...


Its coolin' off now.

Looks like cotton balls don't generate the heat of nice clean burning coal. Plus the lights are beginning to go out more frequently. Into dayz now and probably coming to a theatre near you .

I'm prepared, cold storage full, dated all jars, cans and water bottles haha. 
I have some good books on hand with loads of cooking oils, candles n firewood. 
I'm chillin' with some wild turkey on the rocks for now.


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> - nickbatz
> 
> ...


ha ha yeah nothing new on lj's, seems most threads eventually get off track and turn into arguments.this one is mild.


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> - nickbatz
> 
> ...


This^^ It's really hard to change human nature


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

> The comments here are insane and not what I hoped to elicit. All I was doing is commenting on the price of lumber, not trying to prod right-wing woodworkers.
> 
> - nickbatz
> 
> ...


In the Story of Stupidity, James F Welles, PhD, says it has been consistent since ancient Greece ;-((


----------



## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

Something else to consider into this discussion is that Walnut isn't graded the same as other North American hardwoods by the NHLA. It is graded to a MUCH lower specification.

The reason I bring this up is it's clear reading what the grading rules are. Second, you can ask a seller what grade it is, if it's not marked. So after reading what makes FAS, and higher grades of wood, if you seller calls #2 Common looking wood FAS, or PRIME, it's up to you to say later, bye bye, and vote with your wallet. IE: not to buy. If they say it's FAS and it actually resembles FAS according to NHLA grading rules, 10 to 12 bux a bd/ft keep it from being shipped to Asia right now, today. Might go down, will probably go up.

NHLA rules Note these are the 2019 rules. Proposals for rules changes were just made in September 2021 for talked about changes. Implementation comes later, if changes are to happen.

This is the guy closest geographically to me, and he's usually spot on price wise. He's currently at $10.75 for SELECT, he calls that PRIME Walnut His normal Walnut is probably what many across America are buying. Generally better than #2 Common, Usually off from FAS, due to lengths and widths.

So if you really want to talk prices, you must also include grades, or at least infer something about them, or it may as well be sawdust you are buying.


----------



## mel52 (Sep 4, 2017)

Just noticed at the Home Depot in another town the other day, that average 8 ft. 2X4s are now $3.49. A while back they were around $9.00. The better grade of 2X4s were $4.29 when they were $ 11.49. Also have noticed most of their wood products have lowered in price quite a bit. The local lumber yard in the same town where I get most of my wood also have lowered most of their products a good amount but not as much as HD. Mel


----------



## Tony1212 (Aug 26, 2013)

I wonder if we'll be seeing a supply issue with hardwood now as all of the sawyers and mills jumped on the construction lumber bandwagon while it was hot and stopped hardwood production.

I'm not sure if sawyers and mills can change over like that, but I figure this is probably one of the best places to ask.


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

hardwoods here in Az are always a tad more than elsewhere, at least it seems that way, we got not much in hardwoods other than the desert variety, and one needs to sharpen tools constantly to work it.
Rj in az


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

Just to touch on what controlfreak posted the other day…,,,,,,,,

It is just a strange time and you can cast blame wherever you like but I don't see anyone making more profit.

BUSINESS AND PEOPLE SHOW YOU PROFIT MARGINS????

-----------------------------------------------------------------
I'm not in the business of woodworking, however, the hobby is of interest to me soooooo,,,

I have a ?
Forget the supply and demand side of things for a moment.
Can we simplify things here with graphs? For those that have been taking notes, by regions.

Yes… my mask in on. Why, because we are in an open yet closed forum here. Well, somfin' like that anyway.

When did you begin to see the hike in wood and what species?
When did you see the hike/variables in all species of wood?
When did you see the drop?
What are you seeing now? 
Some have discussed this with lumber yards they deal with etc etc….
Can we get a good consensus/graph here from those who's business models have changed? Just wood price graphs please, no profit margins or losses.

Anyone???

Gary


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

> I wonder if we ll be seeing a supply issue with hardwood now as all of the sawyers and mills jumped on the construction lumber bandwagon while it was hot and stopped hardwood production.
> 
> I m not sure if sawyers and mills can change over like that, but I figure this is probably one of the best places to ask.
> 
> - Tony1212


Construction lumber has to be stamped, graded and kiln-dried. So that automatically eliminates most mills from competing. There's some expense to acquiring and keeping the stamp and I'm not sure smaller mills would find it worth the cost.

Hardwoods are a different story and anyone with a mill can cut up logs. I've kept costs under control by using a local supplier for some things. He doesn't offer services like milling or delivery or grading so he can't sell to the wider commercial market. The grade is unpredictable and the roughsawn wood makes it hard to spot defects. We can mill and sort the wood for different products in-house.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> So if you really want to talk prices, you must also include grades, or at least infer something about them, or it may as well be sawdust you are buying.
> 
> - therealSteveN


Good point. In my case it's the same rack at the same lumberyard (Phillips plywood in Pacoima, part of Los Angeles).

That said, I'd estimate that of about 15 boards I bought, only a couple of them are "perfect," compared to maybe six last time. I'm probaby going to waste a little more this time - so I guess I need to make some cutting boards as Christmas presents.


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Construction lumber is a commodity similar to gas, it is priced by futures markets. The price you charge as a retailer is based on what it will cost when you replace it, unlike many other businesses where where you just increase as the price goes up from your supplier. Sounds good when the price is going up but they take a beat down when they bought high and the futures go down. Is there a futures market for walnut? I doubt it.

I think we did well getting this back on track….since I hit the back arrow key instead of posting. You have to admit in are current state a thread titled "inflation" was going to end up going political, at least that was my first reaction.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Construction lumber is a commodity similar to gas, it is priced by futures markets. The price you charge as a retailer is based on what it will cost when you replace it, unlike many other businesses where where you just increase as the price goes up from your supplier. Sounds good when the price is going up but they take a beat down when they bought high and the futures go down. Is there a futures market for walnut? I doubt it.
> 
> - controlfreak


^ This (although not the not-political part so much  ). Which gets back to what I wrote early on about inflation being hard to put back in the bottle.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

This is a great thread on Twitter someone alerted me to, for anyone interested in getting into the weeds of the global supply chain. I'm going to work my way through some of the articles over the next few days. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1438538388991266823


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I can remember, God knows how many decades ago before I ever needed to price wood, a GP plywood factory cought on fire. Picture in your mind a yard full of plywood on fire, stacks upon stacks. It was so hot you couldn't get a hose close enough to make a difference and they sure weren't going to put it out. Okay I will tie this in, I wonder what that did to the market pricing back then? I am kind of glad I am mostly beyond plywood projects now.


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

> Can we get a good consensus/graph here from those who s business models have changed? Just wood price graphs please, no profit margins or losses.
> 
> Anyone???
> 
> ...


This will be quick so I'm not going to create a graph or look up reciepts to get exact cost over time. Perhaps later.

Commercial pricing from the Chicago supplier includes skip-planing, straightline rip and delivery. Local mill does not include any of those.

Walnut pricing I'm unsure about. #1 common was out of stock sometime earlier this year when we tried to restock. We got 100bf at $3.61/bf on 9-17-20 but I believe we paid closer to $5 early 2021. Downside to #1 common is there's a lot of waste in there but the higher grades have a lot of knots too.

The commercial alternative was to get one of the higher grades at $9-$14/bf and we switched to the local source after that. We've settled on $7/bf with the last purchase with the local mill.

Baltic birch was the first to go up in price and that was around the middle of 2020 when it started going in and out of stock. Price has been climbing since. B/BB 1/2" was $29.50/sheet if purchased by the unit in January 2020. Current pricing is unknown until it is back in stock but the last price I heard when available was around $60/sheet.

Domestic plywood is never cheaper than baltic birch. A unit of b1 3/4" birch quoted about $55/sheet two years ago. Last purchase price two months ago was $84/sheet. I suspect domestic producers automatically raise prices to stay higher than imports.

Maple started moving up this year. It's moved from around $2.70/bf to $5.49/bf for 500 bf.

Cherry started moving up in 2019 I believe, went back down in 2020 and is now trending up again. Average pricing two years ago was around $3.20 and it's now $4.34/bf.

Cherry price hikes in the past were blamed on Chinese purchases but that seems to have been temporary.

Lumber rep said maple and poplar were moving up on demand. The lack of baltic birch is unknown since it seems the Russian mills were not delivering and stopped answering phone calls for awhile. Rumors say the European market is more profitable than the US market.

MDF supply was limited last year and perhaps still is. I don't order much. Rep said MDF manufacturers sourced all their resin from China and couldn't buy it.

The general take from the above is that anything that has an overseas supply chain has become unreliable. Domestic goods are going up in price but are typically available on demand.

We're doing what we can to eliminate imported materials from our products. Most baltic birch products now use Appleply or B1 cabinet plywood. Those that didn't make the switch are out of production right now.

Some wood items formerly sourced from China are now made in-house. We've added a 3D printer to make parts and are building/planning to build more machines and fixtures in-house to minimize dependency on spare parts from overseas.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> I can remember, God knows how many decades ago before I ever needed to price wood, a GP plywood factory cought on fire. Picture in your mind a yard full of plywood on fire, stacks upon stacks. It was so hot you couldn t get a hose close enough to make a difference and they sure weren t going to put it out. Okay I will tie this in, I wonder what that did to the market pricing back then? I am kind of glad I am mostly beyond plywood projects now.
> 
> - controlfreak


Well, there are micro and macro disruptions. 

What that thread I just linked is saying is that a lot of the pressure has been building for a long time.


----------



## Woodnmetal (Jul 24, 2021)

The general take from the above is that anything that has an overseas supply chain has become unreliable. Domestic goods are going up in price but are typically available on demand.

We're doing what we can to eliminate imported materials from our products. Most baltic birch products now use Appleply or B1 cabinet plywood. Those that didn't make the switch are out of production right now.

Some wood items formerly sourced from China are now made in-house. We've added a 3D printer to make parts and are building/planning to build more machines and fixtures in-house to minimize dependency on spare parts from overseas.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
From 1 business man to another,
I have read and understand your previous posts.

NUFF SAID ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ I appreciate your response!!!

Gary


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

It's interesting to see some of the comments from October last year and what things cost then relative to now. I keep hearing about inflation at 7.5% vs. the anticipated 7.0% but when I go to the grocery store, most of what I buy is up between 17% and 25% in less than two months. I paid $2.749/gallon for regular unleaded gasohol on 1/19/22, at the same station today it's $3.219/gallon. What are people buying that hasn't gone up more than the "7.5%" that I keep reading about?


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> What are people buying that hasn t gone up more than the "7.5%" that I keep reading about?
> 
> - bigblockyeti


There are several ways to measure inflation, but one of them is not you or me going to the grocery store and seeing some prices higher.

The general measure is called the Billion Price Index, and you can imagine what it is by the name. No one buys all billion items on the list!

The other side of the equation is that wages have been rising in real terms, meaning adjusted for inflation.

Remember, we're in the middle of a raging pandemic. This is happening all around the world.

Having said that, inflation is more complicated than that. One of the big factors is simply people expecting prices to rise and raising their prices in anticipation!


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

All of this I know, and I'm aware of some stuff not really going up too terribly high, just not much that I'm actively buying on a regular basis.

I fear you're right that we are in the middle of a pandemic, the question is which one?

I guess I'm still on the learning curve of trying to lower my expectations as I've been instructed.


----------



## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

The price of OSB doesn't hurt me because I don't use it. It is also rising in price because of the housing boom. Diesel fuel and natural gas are the prices that tap my wallet, but those prices are up because demand is up over last year. I am tired of fuel prices being compared to last year. How do today's prices compare to pre-virus? Inflation won't look so bad if we take out the months of the pandemic when prices were below normal due to lack of demand


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

All I know is the cost of my equipment has doubled and I can't even buy a quarter of it. My employees make 7 1/2 % less then they did last year so I need to give them a raise of at least 10%. Those have combined to make me raise my prices significantly. I haven't even addressed that I have four service trucks that drink gas. The 7.5 % inflation number doesn't even include some items that have gone up a lot. I save money and that habit has lost me 7% or more on what I save. This is bad folks, ain't no way to sugar coat it and its just begun. I bought my first house at 15% interest to lock in before it went to 20%. Trust me, I know how bad it can get.


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

boy howdy on the fuel, i have 6 trucks on road, fuel costs have doubled, time to get out and sell all i have , soon, very soon, had enough of slow joe and his bull********************e
Rj


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Trust me, I know how bad it can get.
> 
> - controlfreak


My sympathies, and of course it *can* get worse. If you're hit hard by the economy, of course the big picture doesn't matter. But overall the economy is doing very well, growing very quickly - and not just for billionaires.

I'm neither an economist nor a psychic, but my guess is that things will stabilize soon. The wild card is another covid surge.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> boy howdy on the fuel, i have 6 trucks on road, fuel costs have doubled, time to get out and sell all i have , soon, very soon, had enough of slow joe and his bull********************e
> Rj
> 
> - Knockonit


See, this is just ignorant. Blaming Biden?! And for FUEL PRICES that are set on global exchanges?!

Everything his admin is doing is helping the economy, and everything he's trying to do would help it much more!

I don't come here to discuss politics, but this just pisses me off.


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> The price of OSB doesn t hurt me because I don t use it. It is also rising in price because of the housing boom.
> 
> - ibewjon


It was $15.15 at the beginning of last September (on the back end of the most severe variant) and at that same store today it's $46.35, in other words up over 200% in 5.5 months. The housing boom has increased that much in 5.5 months?


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

> The price of OSB doesn t hurt me because I don t use it. It is also rising in price because of the housing boom.
> 
> - ibewjon
> 
> ...


Add in the record-setting California fires and the record-setting hurricanes and tornadoes in the last few years! The big 3 insurance companies were able to pay the claims a couple of years ago when we had big storms plus the Camp Fire but they had to borrow money from the automotive side of the company ;((


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

Not politics, just a fact. The $30 trillion national debt's interest will be higher than revenue if the interest rate goes up much above 0% ;( The only way to pay it is inflation; make it worthless.


----------



## Woodmaster1 (Apr 26, 2011)

I can still get all the walnut I want at $5 through my woodworking club shop or $4 from a friend that mills and dries his own.


----------



## JCamp (Nov 22, 2016)

I won't mention the idiot involved but the national debt went up 3 trillion in just one year. Amazing considering how little has been done that was actually useful.


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

Tytler who was a history professor at the U of Edenborough studied democracies. He said none lasted more than 200 years. We are currently in the Apathy Phase of the Tytler Cycle: accept no responsibility for problems and blame everyone else for a system of corruption. The debt will seal the deal ;((


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

some can just sing the ""i'm a believer '' song as long as they can.
funny stuff. 
thanks for the comments, enjoy the info on osb in other areas, its close to 30 now, buy 50 get a 2.25 break a sheet i think

all other plywood is off the chart, ugh, wanted to build some counter tops, and well, gonna wait and hope the price of ply comes down, at the price it is, and i have lotsa laminate sheets, i can almost buy pre made laminate tops, and not have to labor to build, 
inflation that other thing most don't wanna believe
rj in az


----------



## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

According to news outlets, the trade deficit exceeded 800 billion in 2021.

In other news, China and Russia are aggressively reducing dependence on US dollars (trade and holdings) and other countries are joining in. If the USD loses favored status as the global reserve currency, running a trade deficit will be expensive.

As always, I advise people to produce as much durable goods or food as possible and reduce dependence upon imported goods. Develop relationships with other locals doing the same. Politicians are busy finger-pointing, lying and looting. Waiting for them to fix anything is wasting valuable time.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

> Not politics, just a fact. The $30 trillion national debt s interest will be higher than revenue if the interest rate goes up much above 0% ;( The only way to pay it is inflation; make it worthless.
> 
> - TopamaxSurvivor


Everything about that is a fact except the whole thing.

It is simply incorrect. I'm too lazy to explain why here. That's what Twitter is for.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

...but I will point out one important thing, which I say without agreeing that the national debt is a problem at all (it's absolutely not close to being a problem now): not all debt is the same thing!

1. Debt on previous commitments that has to be paid, although at a national level it erodes over time due to inflation (notice that the US WWII debt just went away).

2. Current expenses, which ideally would be balanced but sometimes can't be - for example in the middle of a raging pandemic that threw a lot of people out of work for a while. (Unemployment is very low now, by the way - we've bounced back very quickly exactly because the federal government went into debt to try and bail people out! We're recovering far more quickly than we did from the Great Recession for that reason.)

3. Investment. That's good debt because it makes us richer and better - the spending pays off. Education, infrastructure, healthcare, etc. are all good things to spend money on. And we can afford to.


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Investment is the term used when politicians want to spend money they don't have.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

Silly lines that require no more thought than you can fit on a bumper sticker are why so many ********************ty politicians get voted into positions of responsibility over others.


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> 3. Investment. That s good debt because it makes us richer and better
> - nickbatz


Except when it doesn't.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

And you're quoting Lauren Boebert lies.

Really, this forum is depressing AF.

I've had some great advice about woodworking, but I don't need to come here and read uninformed bull******************** from people who don't use their brains.

This thread needs to be taken down and the forum is in serious need of moderation.


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

It's only a lie if they're not attempting it. Pro tip, they are.


----------



## nickbatz (Mar 7, 2018)

Pro tip: that is a LIE on its face.

I'm out of here. Who needs to waste time with people who don't bother to think.


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

You ain't seen nothing yet.


----------



## sawdust1whisperer (Nov 11, 2014)

Closing down our energy production and the XL Pipe Line and Giving Russia the green light for the Norstream Pipe line, then begging the world for the oil we could have produced here is a big part of inflation.

lets go green when the renewables are ready to support our needs. Now everything thats delivered is transported by oil, except our children.

Here in California they are asking us to stop charging our EV's because it's straining our electric grid.

Only Union drivers can pick up containers at our California ports and trucks have to be upgraded or replaced every 4 years, this is one reason container ships are in a 100 plus queue.

Many small trucking companies and independent truckers can't afford it and are moving out of state. I know two.

This is just a few of the dumb things that our blue leaders are doings to us. They don't care if poor families who live from pay check to pay check have to decide weather to fill up their tanks or buy groceries.


----------



## Desert_Woodworker (Jan 28, 2015)

No inflation for me here at LumberJocks- It is still Free at no cost to me…


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

good stuff, running off die hard liberals is or could be the future. inflation, and ugly word no matter who or how it effects you.

this continueing to buy fuel from Russia is asinine, as is buying lumber from other countries, Canada included, we have plenty to remove ''remember only you can prevent a forest fire.'' some bear said that i think
rj in az


----------



## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

The XL pipeline has not been built, and was never intended to deliver energy to the USA. It was a way to get the oil to export markets, because the people of Canada didn't want the pipeline running through their provinces. And the farmers and ranchers here are also against the pipeline route, because it passed over their water supply. But it was cheaper to build through the USA, so that is the chosen route. The original Keystone pipeline has been and is delivering oil 24 hours a day. Thank Putin for the rising prices.


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> 2. Current expenses, which ideally would be balanced but sometimes can t be - for example in the middle of a raging pandemic that threw a lot of people out of work for a while. (Unemployment is very low now, by the way - we ve bounced back very quickly exactly because the federal government went into debt to try and bail people out! We re recovering far more quickly than we did from the Great Recession for that reason.)
> 
> - nickbatz


UE rate means nothing. Approx 2-4 million less employed people now than before pandemic

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> ... Investment. That s good debt because it makes us richer and better -
> - nickbatz


We are so rich and so better

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE

With inflation the highest in 40 years real wages are down. Obama's chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Jason Furman: 'Real wages are down more over the last 12 months than any pre-pandemic period since the data started in 2006.'

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oJIu


----------



## waho6o9 (May 6, 2011)

Investment aka taxes

It's a a Republic if you can keep it.

30T in debt makes ya think no one's taking anything serious.


----------



## BurlyBob (Mar 13, 2012)

The US govt, needs to take a Dave Ramsey course!


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

Why does every generation have to learn the hard way? History is an endless cycle ;(( "All of the ingredients that went into creating *Germany's hyperinflation can be grouped into three categories: the excessive printing of paper money; the inability of the Weimar government to repay debts and reparations incurred from World War I;* and political problems, both domestic and foreign." Sound familiar? One of WA's congressional representatives proposed 5 trillion for Covid relief in 2020. When asked how she would pay for it she said with a 5 trillion dollar coin ) She must have not had that coin ;(( The national debt is up 5 trillion ;((((((((((( Just as Germany inflated their debt to worthless we will see it too ;((


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

well. on saturdays i run all my company trucks down and fil;m up, check oil, tranny fluid and see general condition of trucks and interior. 
so at 6am i hit sams club ,gas 3.89.9 gal, second truck 35 min later, 3.94 gal, and at 830 3.99.9 a gal, go figure
rj in az


----------



## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

Drove past station this morning and regular was 3.69. After lunch, 3.99.



> well. on saturdays i run all my company trucks down and fil;m up, check oil, tranny fluid and see general condition of trucks and interior.
> so at 6am i hit sams club ,gas 3.89.9 gal, second truck 35 min later, 3.94 gal, and at 830 3.99.9 a gal, go figure
> rj in az
> 
> - Knockonit


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Gas at Costco was $3.199 for regular, I didn't need any but we were going any way and I had two empty cans plus my wife's car was half full. All eight pumps were 12 cars deep but shuffling through pretty quick. It was $3.289 this morning and jumped again to $3.389 some time today. I've become accustomed to a $0.04 hike per day for a while now but we appear to be gaining momentum. This is especially interesting as Costco usually keeps the price the same the whole day but are now bumping the price in the middle of the day. I don't have a Sam's club membership but it's close to Costco and they're usually doing the same thing, seems to be the case.


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

More bad news.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine aggravated already-soaring lumber prices, and they're about to start seeing even bigger swings
[email protected] (Natasha Dailey) - 28m ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-aggravated-already-soaring-lumber-prices-and-theyre-about-to-start-seeing-even-bigger-swings/ar-AAUEjWM?li=BBnb7Kz

Our Costco Reg gas is 3.699


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I thought gas and fish were free in AK?


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

> I thought gas and fish were free in AK?
> 
> - bigblockyeti


Well, in a roundabout way, I guess you could say that.


----------



## sawdust1whisperer (Nov 11, 2014)

> The XL pipeline has not been built, and was never intended to deliver energy to the USA. It was a way to get the oil to export markets, because the people of Canada didn t want the pipeline running through their provinces. And the farmers and ranchers here are also against the pipeline route, because it passed over their water supply. But it was cheaper to build through the USA, so that is the chosen route. The original Keystone pipeline has been and is delivering oil 24 hours a day. Thank Putin for the rising prices.
> 
> - ibewjon












This oil could be used domestically if needed. Now China is buying oil from Russia like the US is and funding Putins war in Ukraine.

We used to produce enough oil for our consumption and have enough left over to import, now we import what we can't produce.

If you like inflation and an unstable world vote for the democratic socialist communist party.

That's your right.


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

local sams club dropped gas price to 3.96 gal, down .03 from yesterday, hmmmm
rj in Az


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

> The XL pipeline has not been built, and was never intended to deliver energy to the USA. It was a way to get the oil to export markets, because the people of Canada didn t want the pipeline running through their provinces. And the farmers and ranchers here are also against the pipeline route, because it passed over their water supply. But it was cheaper to build through the USA, so that is the chosen route. The original Keystone pipeline has been and is delivering oil 24 hours a day. Thank Putin for the rising prices.
> 
> - ibewjon
> 
> ...


One error in that story. US refineries cannot refine the Canadian oil. I do not remember the issue. The fracking that increased US oil production started daily earthquakes in Oklahoma. They are small in the magnitude 2 range.


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Costco did it again, two price increases in one day, it's now at $3.579 or $0.39 more per gallon than I paid Friday afternoon. A horse is looking more appealing everyday!


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> Costco did it again, two price increases in one day, it s now at $3.579 or $0.39 more per gallon than I paid Friday afternoon. A horse is looking more appealing everyday!
> 
> - bigblockyeti


hey dont come to los angeles were way over 5 bucks now and climbing.


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

How's the propane for the towmotors?


----------



## pottz (Sep 15, 2015)

> How s the propane for the towmotors?
> 
> - bigblockyeti


up ! and natural gas that theve always told us we had huge reserves of ?


----------



## AlaskaGuy (Jan 29, 2012)

We have lots of oil and natural gas up here.

Alaska's proved natural gas reserves totaled nearly 37 trillion cubic feet at the start of 2021, the fifth-largest among the states. Alaska ranks third in the nation (after Texas and Pennsylvania) in natural gas gross withdrawals, but most of the state's gas production is not brought to market.

Alaska's proved crude oil reserves-about 2.4 billion barrels at the beginning of 2021-are the fourth-largest of any state.


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

as if gas prices going up along with everything else, our illustrious government officials approved a 13billion, thats 13 billion aid package to the europe country presently in a altercation

so we can aide another country, but we can't use our own oil, our own wood, protect our borders, my my what is America coming to.
rj in az

i see my retirement being taxed to oblivion


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

$13 billion is nothing, it doesn't matter any more. The money doesn't exist so they just print it. The value of the hardware left in Afganistan was greater, and that was before they devalued the dollar between 7% & 20% (depending if you're watching the news or actually seeing how much prices have increased). I'm guessing it will be $1 billion/yr. for a decent state university tuition in less than 10 years when I'll start receiving one of those bills.

America is becoming exactly what they want it to be.


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

The news said last night the US is considering its own cryptocurrency coin. Not sure why they need another. The dollar is mostly in cyberspace.


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> i see my retirement being taxed to oblivion
> 
> - Knockonit


It'll be your/ours property taxed to oblivion. Pay that tax or the jackboots will come and seize it.


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

You'll own nothing and be happy.


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

> i see my retirement being taxed to oblivion
> 
> - Knockonit
> 
> ...


hehe, over my dead body and a few of them. mine, baby, mine


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Crude, Brent and gasoline all fell again today yet the stations rose prices another $0.10/gallon, good stuff!


----------



## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

well locally found gas for 3.39 regular, i filled up a couple trucks, and went back for more, and they were out

osb half inch 58.00 plus the gubermint hit, oh my, 
limited supply. 
vendor says going to go to mid 60s in next few weeks. 
milk was over 3 bucks a gallon.

and saw case of oil at sams club went up 3.50 my my

happy friday
rj in az


----------



## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I have seen full drop to around $3.679 at many stations I passed last night, Sams and Costco used to undercut the cheapest stations by $0.10 - $0.15 but no so much as of lately. Lumber still seems astronomical and a 10 pack of blades for my sawmill rise ~$5 every 3-4 weeks but cutting my own still beats the heck out of any BORG. An interesting conundrum I ran across was white lithium grease at Walmart, and this really makes no sense to me.

12/30/21








.
.
.

3/17/22


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

This is all you need to know. Transitory? Putin?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE


----------



## TopamaxSurvivor (May 2, 2008)

> This is all you need to know. Transitory? Putin?
> 
> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE
> 
> - 1thumb


A couple of years ago I was at Chase Bank. I asked them why they do not have CDs. They told me they do not borrow money. The FED provides them, Citi, and the other biggies with all they need every night. US Bank issued CDs, but they last couple of years interest rates dropped so low they are no longer worth the time to do the paperwork ;((


----------

