# Lumber prices (FALLING!) leading inflation XI



## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

More good news from The Daily Caller:


> After Skyrocketing To Record Highs, Lumber Prices Fall Back To Earth


Things change. From *Fox* *17JUN21:*



> Lumber prices plunge, Sherwood Lumber COO explains what's driving the decline
> 
> * Lumber prices down more than 40% since record high in May
> *


*

Fox News 28MAY21:
*


> Trump pins lumber crisis on Biden policies*
> Trump said, 'It's going to be ugly when you look at the cost of a house, just the materials for a house'
> *


*

Washington Examiner 27MAY21:



Biden administration moving to double tariffs on Canadian lumber despite already skyrocketing timber prices …

Click to expand...

Breitbart Newsletter 20MAY21:



Today's manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed was a great indication of just how quickly businesses are shifting into an inflationary mindset. Price indicators on both sides of the factory-the intake gate where the materials arrive and the offloading docks where the products ship out-jumped to 40 year highs. The prices paid diffusion index soared 8 points to 76.8, its highest reading since March 1980. Nearly 77 percent of firms reported paying higher prices and none-zero, zilch, donut-reported paying lower.

We've seen spikes in prices of materials and higher-order goods in the past, including when tariffs on metals and some Chinese imports were hiked during the Trump administration, but these typically have squeezed margins rather than raised consumer prices. This time, however, businesses are succeeding in passing on higher prices. Nearly 43 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, the highest percentage since 1981 and a big jump up from 36 percent in April. Just two percent of firms reported falling prices.

After a long dormancy, inflation expectations have roared back to life. When the Philly Fed asked businesses in February how much they thought they would increase the prices of their goods over the next twelve months, the median answer was three percent. In May, that figure jumped all the way up to five percent. The median reported inflation over the previous 12 months was 2.3 percent (up from 2.0 percent in February), which indicates that businesses think inflation is running twice as hot.

You won't be surprised that business owners suspect that they'll be able to raise prices more than the other guys. That's the kind of animal spirit that drives American capitalism. So the Philly Fed found that the median expectation for broader inflation went from 3 percent in February to 4 percent in May, half the gain that the same folks said about their own prices.

As far as we can tell, we and the Wall Street Journal's editorial page writer James Freeman were the only ones to highlight the inflationary signals in the Philadelphia Fed report. After decades of low inflation, many journalists and analysts just aren't equipped to notice rising prices even when they heat up to temperatures unseen since the days of Jimmy Carter and Paul Volcker.

- Alex Marlow & John Carney 
Breitbart News Network

Click to expand...

Email from Grizzly:



A Message From Our President

Dear Customer,

This year has proven to be no less challenging than 2020 for businesses and customers alike. Supply chain disruptions across the globe continue to rile the manufacturing and transportation of goods in every industry. These disruptions have caused record backorders on everything from children's toys to appliances to woodworking and metalworking machinery. There is no industry untouched by these disruptions.

The unprecedented demand for goods, coupled with the restricted supply chain over the last fifteen months has not only impacted supply speed, but now rapid increases in raw material costs and transportation expenses are causing financial impacts in every aspect of business. The price of steel is up over 30%, copper 35% and the cost of shipping has quadrupled; just about every other cost for producing and moving goods continues to rise with no signs of slowing.

Grizzly has absorbed these cost increases on most goods for as long as possible, but we can no longer hold off on increasing our prices. In some cases, these increases are significant, but I can assure you we have done everything in our power to minimize increases wherever possible before passing additional costs on to the customer.

We are committed to providing a product you can trust by supplying high-quality tools at affordable prices with outstanding customer service. We will continue to work tirelessly to increase supply and minimize cost impacts wherever we can.

Thank you for your business and ongoing support.

Best Regards,
Robert McCoy
President 
Grizzly Industrial, Inc.

Click to expand...











Excerpted from Fox

In the crazy last 100 days, the price of everything from lumber, food and gas to cars and houses has soared. Yet many interest rates are still stuck at or below 3%. 

Excerpted from Fox Tucker Carlson 08MAY21:

And then there's lumber. Have you noticed lumber? Since last year, the price of dimensional lumber has gone up by almost 300%. Want a thousand board feet? That'll be $1,359. That price has never been higher. According to the National Association of Home Builders, the cost of materials adds more than $35,000 extra dollars to the price of a new single-family home. 

Excerpted from 07MAY21 Brietbart:

Wood product producers shed 7,000 jobs, perhaps reflecting extremely high prices for lumber.

Excerpted from The Daily Caller: (emphasis added)


The consumer price index spiked 0.6% in March, the largest monthly increase in nearly a decade, the Labor Department reported last month. In particular, the costs of
*
lumber,* gasoline, steel, copper, computer chips, homes and home appliances have all substantially increased in the past few months.
*
*


"We are seeing very substantial inflation," Warren Buffett, billionaire investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, said at his company's annual shareholder meeting Saturday, according to CNBC. "It's very interesting. We are raising prices."


"The costs are just up, up, up," he continued. "Steel costs, you know, just every day they're going up."

*
Lumber* prices hit an all-time record price of $1,500.50 per thousand board feet on Friday, according to The Wall Street Journal. The *high cost of wood* is expected to stay elevated for several months.
*
*


The
*
high cost of wood* has contributed to the rising cost of homes nationwide. Home prices rose 11.3% in March, the largest increase since 2006, real estate insights firm CoreLogic reported Tuesday.
*
*


Buffett noted that the cost of building homes is increasing due to
*
lumber* and steel price increases, CNBC reported. Berkshire Hathaway owns Clayton Homes, one of the largest homebuilding companies in the U.S, paint maker Benjamin Moore and carpet manufacturer Shaw Industries.


"Homebuyers are experiencing the most competitive housing market we've seen since the Great Recession," Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic, said in a statement last month. "Rising mortgage rates and severe supply constraints are pushing already-overheated home prices out of reach for some prospective buyers."


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## metolius (May 26, 2016)

yep - we are likely in for a full market inflation ride for the next 2yrs.


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## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

CD rates go up during inflation. If you've got no big ticket items to buy then it can work out… If you've got CD's that is.
Around 1980, CD rates were 11%. Jimmy Carter years, very high inflation. I built my house then. It wasn't that materials were expensive, it's just that since no one was building there were no materials in stock. I waited for about 3 weeks for a stack of sheetrock for instance. But it was a good time to build. I put the shell up myself one summer and got it enclosed and it was probably about 40% less than a few months previous.

So with inflation, eventually people will slow spending and stuff will drop. It's all about what the market will bear. Capitalism in motion. Under this system you gotta take the good with the bad. Still better than other methods for sure.


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

Somebody voted for him is what they say.


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

As per the Federal Reserve chair, this inflation trend is "transitory", which the market in general is in agreement with him. I keep a very close eye on the mortgage back securities (it is my job as a mortgage originator) which dictate the mortgage rates and I can tell you the rates are stable.

Yes, inflation is up and yes rates will eventually will rise, but the Federal Reserve is buying approximately $120B monthly mortgage back securities in order to keep the rates low and there is no indication they will taper anytime this year.

Also, this inflation trend is somewhat skewed since the some commodities have increased in value from 2020 where they were artificially low. As as example, crude hit $28 a barrel in 2020 and now at $64 a barrel. It is almost triple, but $28 a barrel was artificially low due to oversupply and was around $70 a barrel in 2019. So it looks like it tripled in price, but actually just stabilized to pre COVID pricing.

I bought my first home at 14% rate and I can tell you, we will not see this again in my lifetime. When the market was at its hottest point in 2004, 2005, 2006 the rates were hovering in the 5's to 7's.

This current inflation environment is indeed transitory.


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

In the final analysis everything is transitory except death. The trick then is to survive the transition.


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## sansoo22 (May 7, 2019)

Does the current issue with logistics supply chain attribute to some of the inflation? I used to work for an intermodal trucking company and still have some friends in that sector. They are telling me trucks, ships, trains, etc are all running extra empty routes to go collect chassis and containers that were just left at wherever their last stop was when COVID lockdowns were enforced. I know "running empty" in the shipping sector is always a bad thing as you burn fuel and man hours for no gain. Those additional costs get pushed off to your client which I assume leads to eventual higher costs for consumers. Not to mention logistics constraints leads to the supply and demand curve getting thrown off.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

my understanding is shipping costs especially those from out of continental USA, has increased by 35 %

and more on some items.

ugly stuff.
think i'll grow some trees, wonder if i'll live long enough to collect, lol
Rj in az

5


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

Fed policy since GFC hasn't changed. They seek to temporarily inflate the perceived value of paper assets. Stocks, bonds, mortgage's, commodities. Money printing. They can't stop or unwind their balance sheet or all explodes in their face.

Fed chairs and economists speak to inflation via the cost of Peruvian anchovies affected by El Nino and trading down from rib eyes to ground beef, so there is no inflation, food prices are actually cheaper

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

Yes, shipping costs have gone up dramatically both domestically and internationally due to COVID and the supply chain shutting down. Demand for shipping has never seen such an increase since we have never been locked down at home like we were during the pandemic. Things are opening up, people are moving about and this will drive the cost of shipping down as demand for shipping basic essentials will slow.

The Federal Reserve is an interesting organization; it is assumed it's a federal agency, but it is actually a private entity owned by BIG banks with broad financial powers. They print the money, create the T-bills and then buy them back with the money they just printed. My feelings about the Federal Reserve and how they control and manipulate the economy is a discussion for another day.


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## Unknowncraftsman (Jun 23, 2013)

My attempt to understand what the hell is going on has lead me to watch old videos of Milton Friedman.
What we have here is the fourth way to spend your money. And it's the worst possible way the government takes your money and gives to someone else. 
Or use it to grow government programs. He also mentions once inflation gets started its very hard to stop.


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

Was at Tractor Supply and their tool and hardware shelves were picked clean. All I could find was dusty new old stock.

Bought a flashlight and the included batteries had leaked and eaten the contacts away on the battery pack while sitting on the shelf!

Got the last box of #8 1-1/2" exterior wood screws they had. Many other sizes were empty or only had a box or two. Selection and quantities are low.

Everything seems to be running low and SWMBO says stock and selection are down at the grocery store.

It takes weeks to get parts you used to be able to get from stock or in a couple of days.

We're heading for Moscow on the Hudson here …


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

Bump


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

TSC has never had much stock in stores near me. They all closed years back, and now are attempting to open new stores. The big box Menards, Lowe's, and Depot all have full stock.


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## TravisH (Feb 6, 2013)

> TSC has never had much stock in stores near me. They all closed years back, and now are attempting to open new stores. The big box Menards, Lowe s, and Depot all have full stock.
> 
> - ibewjon


Our store in almost always empty and having 10 cars in the parking lot is the equivalent of Mother's day at the florist.

They really didn't try to change with the times and agricultural & livestock supplies, tools, workwear & boots geared towards that crowd just doesn't cut it anymore in many areas of the country. Rural King really took many of their remaining group of limited shoppers, in my area, as they can eat free pop corn and look at guns. Prices weren't all that competitive either the several times I stopped in.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

When I bought my first home I locked in at 15% and it went on to 20% later. Still in the same home but it is at zero percent now.


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

We have a Tractor Supply about 8 miles from us, and even though I live on a few acres, there aren't enough "Tractors" near here to make a difference. Still that store is packed all the time, often times more in TS than in Lowes anymore. I can hardly understand how they are holding on, Menards has waxed their behinds. Home Cheapo seems to have a "base" pretty steady, but not overwhelming. If I was to guess I would see Menards taking 11% to world domination.

Rural King is newer here, and they evidently haven't caught on.

Just another of many cases of it's always sunny somewhere for someone.


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> When I bought my first home I locked in at 15% and it went on to 20% later. Still in the same home but it is at zero percent now.
> 
> - controlfreak


In 1980 when we got married, the best we could find was 22.5% in a fixed. They had started those ARM's about then, and some who hung onto them wished they hadn't. 15 to 18% jumped to 29%, was like having a credit card on a home loan.

We jumped out of that "home loan" thing as soon as we could. Saying you are a home owner, and having nothing to do with a bank is quite refreshing.  Living the dream…..


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Menards is my choice. Decent quality and selection. Also usually the lowest prices. And much more help than Lowe's and Depot, both of seem to be terribly understaffed. I shop Depot for Milwaukee tools, and Lowe's has the Craftsman warranty for most of my old tools. So we need them all.


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## SMP (Aug 29, 2018)

> When I bought my first home I locked in at 15% and it went on to 20% later. Still in the same home but it is at zero percent now.
> 
> - controlfreak
> 
> ...


The good thing about those days was savings accounts paid like 6-7% interest. You could save money in a savings account, rent an apartment and retire on interest. Nowadays there is no incentive to save one penny.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

> good thing about those days was savings accounts paid like 6-7% interest. You could save money in a savings account, rent an apartment and retire on interest. Nowadays there is no incentive to save one penny.
> 
> - SMP


Maybe so but even with low interest rates i find myself paying cash for everything. If it all hits the fan, I don't need to sweat the payments. But yes, where can I grow savings? Very difficult times.


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

> I find it funny that some want to blame the current administration but as with most of our current problems, they were actually created by the previous administration.
> Perhaps if 45 hadnt tried to start a trade war with every country that we trade with, we wouldnt be facing high lumber costs because most of it can be attributed renegotiating trade deals with Canada.
> People can blame the current president all they want but the simple fact is that 45 really had no clue what he was doing most of the time.
> 
> ...


Cost of a 2×4 makes people go crazy.

Ever consider that it's not either ones fault and it's just something that happened?

Last time I checked, I had plenty to eat, and a good roof over my head. Country is still a great place to live that allows you to do pretty much anything you want.

It was a squirrelly year. Might take more than a couple months to get back to normal.


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## SMP (Aug 29, 2018)

> Cost of a 2×4 makes people go crazy.
> 
> Ever consider that it's not either ones fault and it's just something that happened?
> 
> ...


Yeah most people completely lose perspective. When you buy that new Woodpecker one time tool, that could feed a village in some poor countries for a month. A Starrett combo square costs a 6 month salary in India. But people here flip out when plywood costs $50.


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## Unknowncraftsman (Jun 23, 2013)

Osb or orientated strand board is 60 a sheet before taxes. 
When do admit there's a problem when it's 100 dollars a sheet and gas is 7 $ a gallon.
Who care what the price tea is in India or China. Not me.


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

> Osb or orientated strand board is 60 a sheet before taxes.
> When do admit there's a problem when it's 100 dollars a sheet and gas is 7 $ a gallon.
> Who care what the price tea is in India or China. Not me.
> 
> - Aj2


Within a 5 year period in my life time, I paid 5$ for gas and for a short period .69 cents. Guess what it is right now? Exactly in the middle has been for awhile.

Things are a little screwy. It will stabilize. It always does.

Will everything go back to prices before? No. And that's probably a good thing. It's normal for prices to gradually increase. It's not normal for oak plywood to stay the same price for 25 years.


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## Unknowncraftsman (Jun 23, 2013)

I admire your optimism. 
Good Luck everyone


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## SMP (Aug 29, 2018)

> Who care what the price tea is in India or China. Not me.
> 
> - Aj2


You would if you took Econ 101


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## Dark_Lightning (Nov 20, 2009)

> I find it funny that some want to blame the current administration but as with most of our current problems, they were actually created by the previous administration.
> Perhaps if 45 hadnt tried to start a trade war with every country that we trade with, we wouldnt be facing high lumber costs because most of it can be attributed renegotiating trade deals with Canada.
> People can blame the current president all they want but the simple fact is that 45 really had no clue what he was doing most of the time.
> 
> ...


Bolding mine. Weak. You need better sources of info- this isn't even a joke from ignorance. You also can't put the blame for this situation on a guy who has only been in office for a few months.


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## tvrgeek (Nov 19, 2013)

Facts:
Several mills shut down expecting a big slump. Instead a boom so they are behind. As they have a pretty much fixed scale, there is very little margin for a surge. You don't just build more forests, loggers, and mills over night and especially when you know the boom will subside.

Stores have to bid, so shortage means higher prices until they catch up. I don't think anyone expected the housing boom to exceed the already high rate due to low interest rates.

Much NA wood goes to China to be milled and shipped back. Shortage of containers and backed up docks means bidding wars on lumber, mostly ply and OSB. I think most dimensional lumber is domestic milled, but do not have the facts.

This is TOTALLY COVID related. It has nothing to do with politics. Would you rather have a bin at the store marked $1.79 but empty? Supply and demand predates politics.

Yes we will see some inflation. We had a massive debt before the storms and pandemic. Our economy is so robust, we can handle several at once, but massive tax cuts with deficit spending, then storms, then the COVID is just more than we can breeze through without upsetting things. So, inflation and higher taxes. The only good thing about all this is the interest rate the Government is paying on the debt is much lower than it was in previous major deficits. It used to be the economy lagged policy by a couple of years and resolved in a couple more. Now it looks like it reaches back many more years and will take many more to resolve. Let us just hope that some level of sanity can emerge so we actually get something for what we pay. That has not always been true.


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## MrFid (Mar 9, 2013)

Interesting conversation. I'm not going to weigh in politically. I hope that you will not be able to tell who I voted for based on my comment.

Not to be a wood snob or anything, but the cost of OSB, 2×4s, plywood, etc doesn't really impact me as a woodworker. I've not found that the cost of the hardwoods I normally work with has increased commensurately with building materials. At my local lumber yard (I usually use Highland Hardwoods, Epping, NH) I still pay about the same for cherry, ash, maple, walnut, etc that I paid pre-COVID.

I have certainly used plywood for some projects, so I'm not that much of a purist, but the hardwood plywood that I buy also hasn't seen any dramatic increase either.

It is a shame that building costs are up, and I feel for those who depend on those materials for their livelihood, but I personally haven't felt the crunch of cost increases for much of my work.


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

Yes, shipping costs have gone up dramatically both domestically and internationally due to COVID and the supply chain shutting down. Demand for shipping has never seen such an increase since we have never been locked down at home like we were during the pandemic. Things are opening up, people are moving about and this will drive the cost of shipping down as demand for shipping basic essentials will slow.

The Federal Reserve is an interesting organization; it is assumed it's a federal agency, but it is actually a private entity owned by BIG banks with broad financial powers. They print the money, create the T-bills and then buy them back with the money they just printed. My feelings about the Federal Reserve and how they control and manipulate the economy is a discussion for another day.


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

The truth of the matter is you can't blame either administration; this was caused by a global pandemic which disrupted the supply chain while increased demand unexpectedly.

We can make it a political issue, but it is not. It's a simple case of supply and demand and has nothing to do with trade wars either since a good portion of softwood lumber comes from our own northwest states.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> I heard Biden wants to put a man on the sun. He says we can do it at night.


Dumb. I just fail to understand people who make ******************** up to try to portray Biden as mentally incapacitated and yet are completely oblivious to Trump's clear and utter stupidity. Trump was the guy who claimed George Washington's army quote, "took over the airports". Trump was the stupidest ********************bag to ever occupy the office and it's Biden you claim wants to put a man on the sun?

That's really some mighty cognitive dissonance you have going there.

I believe that inflation is a problem. I believe that the CARES act was focused too much on handing out money and not enough on virus control. I believe that the infrastructure bill is too large and that home health care has no business in the bill. But on balance, I believe that Biden has, at least, hired competent people around him and that the alternative would have been a horrible situation.

Trump is gone. His corrupt cronies are gone. Good riddance. Please don't come back.


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## boyce523 (Feb 13, 2021)

> TSC has never had much stock in stores near me. They all closed years back, and now are attempting to open new stores. The big box Menards, Lowe s, and Depot all have full stock.
> 
> - ibewjon


I order on line and have it shipped most of the time, but we do have several stores in the GA, TN region. I got my compressor and jointer through them. GREAT customer service.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> Facts:
> Several mills shut down expecting a big slump. Instead a boom so they are behind. As they have a pretty much fixed scale, there is very little margin for a surge.
> 
> - tvrgeek


Yup. This is what's causing the price surge. Consolidation has given the mills pricing power over the growers and lumber on the stump, particularly in the southeast, is at it's lowest prices in decades. The mills are swimming in cash right now, but building a new mill costs 10s of millions of dollars and years of permits and planning and nobody wants to take the long term risk if this is a short term rise in prices.


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## boyce523 (Feb 13, 2021)

I just ordered 21 bf of a mix of Oak, Poplar, Maple and Red Oak and it cost over $730.00 (includes delivery) to stock my supply for several more projects. I estimate my next project will take about 5.5 bf so a cost of about $195 just in wood cost. Since I'm making it for the church, I can deduct the cost as a charitable contribution. Certainly not an inexpensive hobby!!!


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## metolius (May 26, 2016)

> I just ordered 21 bf of a mix of Oak, Poplar, Maple and Red Oak and it cost over $730.00 (includes delivery) to stock my supply for several more projects. I estimate my next project will take about 5.5 bf so a cost of about $195 just in wood cost. Since I m making it for the church, I can deduct the cost as a charitable contribution. Certainly not an inexpensive hobby!!!
> 
> - boyce523


Whoa - you are quoting > $34/bf That is insane. Sounds like a $600 delivery charge.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> I just ordered 21 bf of a mix of Oak, Poplar, Maple and Red Oak and it cost over $730.00 (includes delivery) to stock my supply for several more projects. I estimate my next project will take about 5.5 bf so a cost of about $195 just in wood cost. Since I m making it for the church, I can deduct the cost as a charitable contribution. Certainly not an inexpensive hobby!!!
> 
> - boyce523


Are you sure you aren't going to take delivery of 210 board feet? $30 a board foot for that mix just doesn't sound right. And while I haven't bought any hardwood in a while, reports here say hardwood has not seen the run up in prices that dimensional lumber has. And last I was paying, pre-pandemic, for hard maple was in $5 per board foot range.

Where are you? I'll get you the same mix for $400.


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## boyce523 (Feb 13, 2021)

> Are you sure you aren t going to take delivery of 210 board feet? $30 a board foot for that mix just doesn t sound right. And while I haven t bought any hardwood in a while, reports here say hardwood has not seen the run up in prices that dimensional lumber has. And last I was paying, pre-pandemic, for hard maple was in $5 per board foot range.
> 
> Where are you? I ll get you the same mix for $400.
> 
> - skatefriday


I'm in the Atlanta, GA area. I kept thinking it seemed awfully low but I'm just learning how to do this and as it turns out, I calculated the bf for each size I ordered, but I ordered 4 of each and forgot to factor that in, so it's a little over 80 bf - doop! So avg 9.00/bf ($8.32 before delivery) making my next project cost around $60 in wood (depending on how many mistakes I make!). Yea, that sounds a whole lot better, thanks for questioning me.


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## boyce523 (Feb 13, 2021)

> Whoa - you are quoting > $34/bf That is insane. Sounds like a $600 delivery charge.
> 
> - metolius


Yea, I forgot to multiply the bf by the number of pieces I ordered (4 ea), so it closer to $9/bf. 8.32/bf before delivery charges


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

Hey Tom,

I'm in the Atlanta arear also and even $9bf seems very high for maple and red oak. There are several good sources and many sawmills within an hour drive. Have you looked at Peach State Lumber in Kennesaw and Suwanee Lumber, well….. in Suwanee?

Peach State Lumber have their pricing on the website.


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## boyce523 (Feb 13, 2021)

> Hey Tom,
> 
> Peach State Lumber have their pricing on the website.
> 
> - bladedust


Thanks Bladedust,

I did just download the pdf of Preach state lumber and for the same grade, yea they are a LOT less expensive. I wanted to go there Saturday, but they aren't open very late on Saturday (11 am) and I just didn't get things organized enough to head over, so I ordered from lowes as I get a 15% military discount. This is 4/4 rough cut as well. I just cancelled that order and will go to peach state this coming weekend.


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

I recently ordered 200bf of walnut, about $1720 delivered from OH, to NM


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## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

Even though dimensional lumber is way up the soft/hard wood graded lumber is about the same price it's been for a few years. Some has gone up a bit.. like Walnut, but oak, maple; about the same. This increase is the result of two things.
1. They stopped producing anticipating a dropout in building because of the pandemic and people out of work.
2. They were wrong and now there's a shortage so the price has increased.

That's all it's about. Nothing to do with presidents or administrations unless you think that the pandemic was poorly managed by someone.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> ...so I ordered from *lowes *as I get a 15% military discount. This is 4/4 rough cut as well. I just cancelled that order and will go to peach state this coming weekend.
> 
> - boyce523


That explains it. Any hardwood with a barcode will be double what a reputable supplier to the cabinet trade will charge you. And they will often price it by the linear foot, doubly obscuring how much they are ripping you off.


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

Just picked up red oak. 1.70$/bf planned and edged. FAS.

This is slightly on the high side of what I've paid for the past 3-4 yrs.

Range 1.35$ to 1.80$


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## Tony_S (Dec 16, 2009)

> That s what main stream media says.
> I don t believe it . I have spoken directly to the guys at my lumber yard .
> They said during the lock downs people came in and bought whatever they could.
> *He said nothing about the mills shutting down*. Why would they shut down with lumber yards calling for more lifts.
> ...


Your lumber yard guys need to be better informed if thats the case Aj. 
I'm balls deep in this dimensional/plywood crisis right now. I buy both by the lift, and a fair amount of it. 20/25 lifts of various plywood…6-8 lifts of various dimensional/month. 
I don't deal with ma and pa lumberyards, I deal with large wholesalers and distributors. I don't get my information from cnn or fox.
The mills that you don't believe were shut down…were shut down. The year before last there was a huge glut of both lumber and plywood. I was loving it, because I was seeing prices I hadn't seen for 10 years previous to that. 
What did the mills do about this? Depending on the mill, they slowed production…some had a full shutdown. This was all well BEFORE Covid was even a word. Their inventories were dropping back down, approaching levels that were too low and then all this covid bull******************** hit the fan. At that point they suffered the covid lock downs and even the mills who had only slowed production previously started to shut down. 
No big deal right? No one is going to buy lumber and plywood when the world is coming to an end anyways right?
Wrong. Who would have guessed, but they all got caught with their pants down when the market literally exploded.
Scrambling meant ********************….they couldn't/can't scramble because of the pandemic. At BEST, going hard meant half speed.
Most of these mills are now booked out until Sept/Oct at this point. They're selling plywood and lumber that's still growing on the top of a hill. 
Add in huge transport issues, labor shortages, tariffs and a dozen other problems and you've got the perfect storm.
It had/has nothing to do with 'sleep Joe' or even the orange dude for that matter. The writing was on the wall a year and a half ago.


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Well said Tony and informative.


----------



## boyce523 (Feb 13, 2021)

> Just picked up red oak. 1.70$/bf planned and edged. FAS.
> 
> This is slightly on the high side of what I've paid for the past 3-4 yrs.
> 
> ...


Peach State is charging 3.30 for FAS Red Oak


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

> Just picked up red oak. 1.70$/bf planned and edged. FAS.
> 
> This is slightly on the high side of what I've paid for the past 3-4 yrs.
> 
> ...


I'll only charge you 3$. Save you .30. Lol.

Honestly it matters where it comes from. I can specify a certain type of RO and it would be closer to 3$. Run of the mill RO is what I use.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

"Every day the bucket goes to the well,
But one day the bottom will drop out,
Yes, one day the bottom will drop out"

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART


----------



## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

> I didn't know we had so many Lumber mill experts. That have been studying and collecting data.
> I share what's in my face to face conversations with people I meet.
> Another industry that has been doing well is the guys at the saw service. They been super busy.
> It's a week turn around for tablesaw blades.
> ...


And get off my lawn!


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## LeeRoyMan (Feb 23, 2019)

Tony, that's deep. (I think??)

Good to hear explanations from someone with hands on experience in the industry.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

> Just like old orange cheese curl dick. You manage to insult more people in a couple of sentences than most could. And it doesn t sound too bright.
> 
> - Craftsman on the lake


Glad you are taking the high road on this.


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## craftsman on the lake (Dec 27, 2008)

> Just like old orange cheese curl dick. You manage to insult more people in a couple of sentences than most could. And it doesn t sound too bright.
> 
> - Craftsman on the lake
> 
> ...


Ya, ya, I know. Sometimes I just think that it's maybe because I'm a controlfreak.

I should but always don't take the advice of an historical figure I admire. "When they go low, we go high".


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> Just like old orange cheese curl dick. You manage to insult more people in a couple of sentences than most could. And it doesn t sound too bright.
> 
> - Craftsman on the lake
> 
> ...


A certain segment of our citizenry has been taking the low road for years. At some point if you don't hit back, the bully will continue the abuse. The guy on the lake is just calling out the abuse in language the abuser will understand. I see nothing wrong with that.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Everytime conservatives are in charge, the economy crashes. Just a proven fact over the decades. Time for some here to study real history.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Owl hardwood Chicago area. Today's price for red oak, 4/4 is $3.69


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> I do admit throwing a few jabs at the blue lefty skater. All in good fun hardly anything to loose sleep over.
> 
> - Aj2


This is what abusers do. They say, "Oh I threw a few jabs, but it was all in good fun." But when the abused throws a jab back all of a sudden that's out of bounds. Enjoy your hypocrisy.

As an aside, if the moderators on LumberJocks are going to take editorial stands on political abuse, and I know that at least one message in this thread was deleted, then it should be consistent and they should delete all messages that impugn the character of members of either political party.

All the more reason to upgrade this server to modern forum software like Discourse such that community members can flag the abuse themselves for moderators and when something is removed for moderation purposes it's clear that it's been done and the offender is notified.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> A certain segment of our citizenry has been taking the low road for years.
> 
> - skatefriday


What segment is that?


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I think its time to acknowledge that left leaning and right leaning individuals have a warped view and reality lies somewhere in between. Which ever side you are on you will not win over the other. Its time to leave politics at the LJ door. It is also disappointing to see adults resort to name calling in an attempt to confirm their viewpoint.

Lets clean this up so Cricket doesn't have to become a baby sitter here.


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## Tony1212 (Aug 26, 2013)

> Owl hardwood Chicago area. Today s price for red oak, 4/4 is $3.69
> 
> - ibewjon


It's funny, I was avoiding this thread because I knew it was going to go full political, but my curiosity finally got the better of me.

As I was reading, I kept glancing at the Owl Hardwood pricelist I picked up last year (dated 07/01/2020) and it lists 4/4 Red Oak as $3.39 bf.

I wish they would put these pricelists on their website. It's a 2 hour round trip for me to get to Owl, but their still the closest hardwood dealer to me. And since I'm only a hobbyist, I would like to know the prices before I make the trek.


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

I'm in the same boat. 75 miles to the nearest HW dealer and no prices posted, which I understand can be difficult to keep current unless the system is set up to do so. Of course I could call, but you can't just ask for a price, you need to specify thickness, rough/surfaced/skio planed, Applachian/southern, SLR, etc. and that is just one species where as I like to pick up an assortment.

I'm sure I'd make no friends if I just asked them for prices on everything 8^)


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I have only bought some hardwood from woodcraft because I didn't need much for a leg vise chop. I just picked it out and went to the register. I look forward to going to a real hardwood dealer when I shop for a project and want to stash some for projects unknown. Being new I doubt I will be shocked because I don't know what it was before. I just hope it is not on the magnitude of what happened to framing lumber and plywood.


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

If you bought at Woodcraft, you shouldn't be shocked at the prices at a HW yard. Just be ready to haul (or cut down) a 12' piece of lumber unless they have the shorter 8' or 10' versions 8^)


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Note to self to buy a hitch mounted extender for my 5' truck bed. Its a little to soon to get a trailer.


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

+1

I made a "contractor" rack for my pickem-up truck that allows me to carry even the 16 footers, but if I'm getting more than 100bf, I'll usually just hitch up the trailer.

The hitch extender would be ideal for short beds, at least you avoid the tire rot and registration costs of a trailer 8^)


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

We don't have to register trailers in South Carolina. Which is why they get stolen so often. Trailer theft is a huge risk in trailer ownership. My shop is 10' x 16' so I won't be bring home any sixteen footers for a while.


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

It'll fit (diagonally) 8^)

My supplier only has the 4/4 poplar in 16' lengths, believe me I'd be happy with 8' but I just can't come to grips with cutting it up before I know what I may need it for (similar reason for my scrap wood hoarding syndrome)

Trailer registration is a rip off IMO, just another way to collect taxes. The bummer with my state is the required plate is the same dimensions as a car plate. I've lost several over the years as they get torn off from curbs or sheared off when hanging half way off the fender. Use motorcycle plates? Noooo that would make too much sense 8^)


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## jkeith (Feb 9, 2020)

Whatever is happening, it's sort of enjoyable in a masochistic sense to be reliving the 70s Jimmy Carter era. I dusted off my leisure suit and platform shoes just to make sure I wasn't time traveling or going crazy…..

Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

> +1
> 
> I made a "contractor" rack for my pickem-up truck that allows me to carry even the 16 footers, but if I m getting more than 100bf, I ll usually just hitch up the trailer.
> 
> ...


I can put 12 footers in van and close the doors.

And it's a total babe magnet 

Just delivered a queen bed, 2 NS, dresser, chest, mirror, and still had seating for 6.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

*


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> Ouch.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

> +1
> 
> I made a "contractor" rack for my pickem-up truck that allows me to carry even the 16 footers, but if I m getting more than 100bf, I ll usually just hitch up the trailer.
> 
> ...


I keep forgetting about my work vans at the office, I have a new Transit that can handle ten footers inside but the ladder rack is at 10' high so I don't really want to get up there but it is doable I guess.


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

> +1
> 
> I made a "contractor" rack for my pickem-up truck that allows me to carry even the 16 footers, but if I m getting more than 100bf, I ll usually just hitch up the trailer.
> 
> ...


I have a new to me transit. I don't think it will be as durable as my E350 van but the fuel mileage is way better and drive WAY better.


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

*1thumb:*
Oppose what?


----------



## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> *1thumb:*
> Oppose what?
> 
> - Madmark2


What?


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## Tony_S (Dec 16, 2009)

An article one of my hardwood suppliers emailed me Last Friday.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-explosion-lumber-prices-50k/


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

Transitory. That's all you have to say regarding inflation or any economic upheaval if you're a Fed banker or have a PhD in economics.

Disintermediation occurs when some fool questions a Fed banker or PhD's transitory comment.


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## Dark_Lightning (Nov 20, 2009)

Eh. The way I hear it, if you lined all the economists in the world up end-to-end, they'd all point in different directions.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Why do you and so many others hate nature? Why must mankind destroy everything for profit? We must take care of the earth and nature. There is no other planet for us to live on. If it means clean water and air, and some nice scenery, I will be happy to pay a higher price. Coal mines in northern Illinois took the coal, but buried thousands of acres of rich, black soil under piles of acid waste. That soul and the food it would have produced are gone forever. Three cheers for the tree and animal huggers!!!


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

Sniffs the air, takes a deep breath….... Hmmmmm kinda smells like the basement at Woodnet in here…. 

Farts, walks out…..


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)




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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)




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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

Nothing to see here. Everything's fine:


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

We looked at America's Home Place to see about building on our property back in April. The Stanton IV is what we were looking at priced at $290,XXX without a garage, adding a 24'x24' attached would have been another $40K. The price went up $11K at the middle of April and I just looked again, the attached garage is now standard and the starting price is $382,057. Aside from being riduculous, the house just isn't worth that much, the model they have on site is stick built and the sales guy said "oh that's more" when I confirmed with him the model they're showcasing is as would be built. A little false advertising aside, many houses aren't apprasing for what the buyer's think they can afford so they don't get the house or have to find ten's of thousands of dollars more to put down.


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## CaptainKlutz (Apr 23, 2014)

Forget about inflation for this local lumber news:

Massive Phoenix recycling center fire has destroyed a local lumberyard. 









Smoke plume captured by local weather radar too.

You may now return to the regular bickering on inflation, and supply/demand economics. :-(0)

Cheers.


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## Cricket (Jan 15, 2014)

Let's keep politics out of this thread, please.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

*


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

Yes, the local yard that got hit was Boise Cascades yard, got hit pretty hard, so much so they are having to order out of either vegas or la for items, was down there today to the other big supplier Capital who is a few more blocks west of the fire, and couple of the salesmen shared info and photos, one ugly mess for sure, 
rj in az


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

Things change!


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## pontic (Sep 25, 2016)

Tried to order 150 bft of white oak in May (6.00 bft) they never responded. Re emailed them in June and now they are happy to fill my order at 8.00 bft. Pay in full now to lock in the price.


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## KurtA59 (Mar 19, 2012)

The existing home market prices are corrupted by the institutional 'buyer' (read: BlackRock) paying way over asking in order to build assets portfolios of rental homes. They are destroying the American Dream of home ownership! 
In 2018 BlackRock had $24billion in real estate with plans to double in 3 years, then double again in the next 3.
The Greet Reset is on


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## MrRon (Jul 9, 2009)

Our economy is going through the "domino" effect. Each aspect of our economy ie: transportation, work shutdowns, school closings, attributes it's loss to another aspect. They all require each to operate at 100%. If one aspect fails, it affects another and that in turn affects the next domino in line until the whole system ultimately fails. It takes a long time for the system to get back to full operational capacity. Government instead of aiding the situation, has failed due to political ambitions; those who would benefit from a downturn in the economy. I blame the covid virus, but more so I blame the politicians who are benefiting from the pandemic. It's hard not to discuss this issue without bringing politics into it, but much of our problem has been with the political LEFT. Why anyone would choose socialism over democracy is beyond my comprehension.


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## Dark_Lightning (Nov 20, 2009)

> Our economy is going through the "domino" effect. Each aspect of our economy ie: transportation, work shutdowns, school closings, attributes it s loss to another aspect. They all require each to operate at 100%. If one aspect fails, it affects another and that in turn affects the next domino in line until the whole system ultimately fails. It takes a long time for the system to get back to full operational capacity. Government instead of aiding the situation, has failed due to political ambitions; those who would benefit from a downturn in the economy. I blame the covid virus, but more so I blame the politicians who are benefiting from the pandemic. It s hard not to discuss this issue without bringing politics into it, but much of our problem has been with the political LEFT. Why anyone would choose socialism over democracy is beyond my comprehension.
> 
> - MrRon


You shouldn't blame "THE LEFT", because it was a Republican president that so badly handled the COVID situation via his incredible lack of political acumen and giant ego that hundreds of thousands of US citizens died unnecessarily. And "the LEFT" ain't socialism. You really need an education in what socialism actually is.


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## tvrgeek (Nov 19, 2013)

$8.25 for a stud yesterday, but they were nice looking and pretty strait.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Futures are down but it will take months to arrive at the retail centers. It will be a waiting game for sellers to figure out what to do with stock bought at the market highs.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> You shouldn t blame "THE LEFT", because it was a Republican president that so badly handled the COVID situation via his incredible lack of political acumen and giant ego that hundreds of thousands of US citizens died unnecessarily. And "the LEFT" ain t socialism. You really need an education in what socialism actually is.
> 
> - Dark_Lightning


What would the death numbers have been with someone different leading the fight against COVID?


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## TravisH (Feb 6, 2013)

> You shouldn t blame "THE LEFT", because it was a Republican president that so badly handled the COVID situation via his incredible lack of political acumen and giant ego that hundreds of thousands of US citizens died unnecessarily. And "the LEFT" ain t socialism. You really need an education in what socialism actually is.
> 
> - Dark_Lightning
> 
> ...


Very good question. The sort of questions my Dad often asks but doesn't really want an answer unless it aligns with his beliefs. The answer is we can't run the scenario multiple times to collect actual data. What we can do is look at other countries and compare/grade how well we did. Surely with us being the "best" we would do better with other similarly developed countries.

As a country we failed miserably based on the fact we have the best medical system, readily available technology, and resources available to address these issues. Far "inferior" countries did much more with less.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

What number have you picked that constitutes "failed miserably"? What number have you picked that would have avoided us having "failed miserably"?

FWIW, unlike your dad I really do want an answer, that has nothing to do with my beliefts. I firmly believe that education can benefit everyone independant of whom they support.

*Back* to lumber prices, I have seen Lowe's dropped ~$1 for a sheet of 4' x 8' x 7/16" OSB


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> Why anyone would choose socialism over democracy is beyond my comprehension.
> 
> - MrRon


This is quite rich coming from the party that stormed the capital and has done more in 4 years to destroy our democracy than any party in the last 200+ years.

Why anyone would choose fascism over democracy is beyond my comprehension.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Oddly 4' x 9' x 7/16" OSB has risen from $47.48 on 5/17/21 to $49.89 today. There's plenty of motive to keep prices high for as long as possible, the test is to see which suppliers drop fastest and when.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

You people should check your delusional politics at the door. After all this is a lumber form and a lumber topic.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

> Oddly 4 x 9 x 7/16" OSB has risen from $47.48 on 5/17/21 to $49.89 today. There s plenty of motive to keep prices high for as long as possible, the test is to see which suppliers drop fastest and when.
> 
> - bigblockyeti


If the futures keep dropping and retailers/wholesalers are are stuck with over priceed inventory someone is going to have to blink. You may sell a overpriced 2×4 in onesie twosie quantity but the guys that need the whole stack or more will quickly gravitate to the low cost provider.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I can't help but wonder if that might start happening with houses too. Houses in my neighborhood that were bought between $300K & $305K in 2018 are being listed for $400K - $440K and usually selling between $10-15K over asking within 2 days. The most recent was offered at $420K and ultimately sold for $403K. I'm hoping this market calms down a little before the county is due for another tri-annual property tax assesment. I only want my house to be worth 50% (or better) than I paid for it when I'm ready to sell it.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

The problem is the companies that make the loans on the inflated price homes, figuring the value will keep climbing. The owner sells in a couple years after the value has risen, and take the profit. But when the prices quit climbing, trouble ahead. Give the loan to a person that can't afford it because the values keep increasing till they don't. Then the payer is underwater, and then the crash. Didn't this just happen?


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

They used to actually have to do some work to estimate house values and lowball it a bit to avoid people contesting the value and that took time. Now they can use zillow to arrive at a number. I suspect that they won't waste any time going up.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Big block…the USA has a death rate per million people that is THREE TIMES THE DEATH RATE IN CANADA!!! Sounds like a failure to me. That roughly equates to 400,000 more deaths than could be expected. A lot of families in mourning for no reason. I am very happy to live where my neighbors are getting their shots.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

3x??? I thought it was four times, I guess we're doing better than I thought.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

If you consider 400,000 extra dead Americans doing better, that is your right. I believe it is shameful and embarrassing to be leading the world in covid deaths by both percentage of population and total number. And the people refusing shots is another huge disappointment in America.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Back to *LUMBER* again, Lowe's had 2×4x8 top choice prime stud for $8.37 on 4/21/21 and today they are $10.22.

I'm glad this country was able to quickly develop and begin distributing vaccinations through science, leadership and research all before 1/20/21.


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## SMP (Aug 29, 2018)

> Back to *LUMBER* again, Lowe s had 2×4x8 top choice prime stud for $8.37 on 4/21/21 and today they are $10.22.
> 
> I m glad this country was able to quickly develop and begin distributing vaccinations through science, leadership and research all before 1/20/21.
> 
> - bigblockyeti


I was at Lowes and Home Depot today and noticed lumber back in stock and higher price than ever. My guess is they are inflating the price as much as the market will allow, so that when they have to lower the prices in a few months on stock they overpaid for, the gains will wash out the future losses.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

That does make sense as the big boys can suffer some losses that would otherwise crush the remaining mom & pop lumber yards. If people will pay it, there's no incentive to lower the prices.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

The Pfizer vaccine was developed in Germany, not the US. It is manufactured here if I read correctly. That is the one my wife and I got. Did not have a choice.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Lowe's had 2×12x12 SYP for $41.32 on 4/21, today the same board is $51.62. Can't wait to see who folds first, HD or Lowe's on that bought at the peak. I'm hoping Menards, which always seems to undercut them both slightly, will jump start everything forcing the drop.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I think they both have the benefit of the weekend warriors that can't get to a "real" lumber yard during the week but eventually they will need to keep up with each other once there is downward pressure on prices. Obviously based on your observations they are not there yet.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Part of this is for my own documentation so I have a reference when checking back again in a couple weeks or a month to see if there's been any improvement.

Fortunately, I don't need any lumber right now that I can't cut on my new mill.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Will work for wood, just saying.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

2×4x8 douglas fir $8.34 at my local HD today


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

2×4x8' was $3.11 ea last spring, $0.58 per bf (2×4x8' = 5-1/3 bf) vs $1.56 per bf now, a *268% increase.*


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## MrRon (Jul 9, 2009)

> You shouldn t blame "THE LEFT", because it was a Republican president that so badly handled the COVID situation via his incredible lack of political acumen and giant ego that hundreds of thousands of US citizens died unnecessarily. And "the LEFT" ain t socialism. You really need an education in what socialism actually is.
> 
> - Dark_Lightning


Socialists like Bernie Saunders describe themselves as "socialist" as if it were a good thing. It ain't. President Trump may have his faults, but there is enough blame to go around regardless of party. Let's not turn this into a political free-for-all; the forum monitors frown on such.


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## MrRon (Jul 9, 2009)

Lumber may have gone through the roof, but I deal with McMaster-Carr a lot (not for lumber) and their prices have not increased all that much.


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## OldBull (Apr 30, 2020)

Spot prices down to $873


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I am showing $8.66 and $8.25 96in 2×4 in my area.


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## sansoo22 (May 7, 2019)

Just checked today for 2×4x96:

whitewood = $8.37 
doug fir = $9.98

I'm not familiar with the term "whitewood"...is that just a mix of different species like hemlock, spruce, pine?


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> Just checked today for 2×4x96:
> 
> whitewood = $8.37
> doug fir = $9.98
> ...


I think douglas fir is supposed to be less resistant to movement than whitewood. Particularly if joined soon after purchase. Which presumably makes it a better choice for framing. But the stuff that comes out of my HD would not support that assertion.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

hemfir is the real name for the white wood
nice studs for sure


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

I can get Birch cheaper than OSB

https://www.homedepot.com/p/Common-19-32-in-x-4-ft-x-8-ft-Actual-0-578-in-x-47-75-in-x-95-75-in-Oriented-Strand-Board-8107410000000000/309026359?source=shoppingads&locale=en-US&mtc=Shopping-B-F_D21-G-D21-21_1_PLYWOOD-Generic-NA-Feed-LIA-NA-NA-&cm_mmc=Shopping-B-F_D21-G-D21-21_1_PLYWOOD-Generic-NA-Feed-LIA-NA-NA--71700000044150928-58700004609752639-92700041149959765&gclid=Cj0KCQjw5uWGBhCTARIsAL70sLJLJXjf5X1hGDOghD_EMn7howLiiwO5ml8zAwVKwWbUTPxqCY8C7jwaAsyTEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> I can get Birch cheaper than OSB


Yeah, this is just wrong. A nightclub in San Francisco put a new floor in and used baltic birch because it was cheaper than OSB. AND THEN THEY PAINTED OVER THE BIRCH. Just criminal misuse of good material. We need to get the market back to normal.


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## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

1/2" Baltic birch is not even available from Raynor until at least July. They did offer me a unit of 3/4" a couple months ago but I declined. I got our customers to either change materials or cancel baltic birch products rather than do intermittent production.

When things normalize I'll probably start buying 1/2" again but we might also have permanently moved onto other materials. The quality of baltic birch took a nosedive and the last unit of BB/B I purchased was more like A/C or BB/BB and it had a lot of voids, stitches, overlapping and glue line defects. We had to toss 25% of the parts cut from it.

Paxton, Sierra and Aetna were also out when I checked a couple months ago. Guess night clubs were hogging it all.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

Today Home Depot is asking $5.87 for 2×4x96.

Significantly off the highs.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I'm seeing them at my closest HD advertised at $5.98, even better 2×8x8 are now $8.35


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

The pricing on 2×8x8's are strange.

Early in the pandemic when 2×4's were $6 I was getting 2×8's for $10 and milling them down into 2×4. Now the 2×8's at my HD are $12.63.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

2×4x8 highest I saw 2 weeks ago was 7.48. Down to 5.18 now. 7/16×4x8 OSB High was 48. Today is 37.45. All at Home Depot.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

7/16×4x8 OSB is $37.45 at my local HD too but it's weird, it's described as "Square Edge OSB Sub-Floor Panel" which is reliably a very bad product to use as sub-floor. Same thing is $43.15 at Lowe's but with a normal description. I only need a dozen or so 2×8x8 in the near future, my OSB needs are none until we build in a couple years. It's only 2.5 miles to Lowe's which I loath and 11 to HD which is unfortunate.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

Ours HD has same description. I'd guess to distinguish it from tongue and groove sub flooring.


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## Sark (May 31, 2017)

Just went to my local hardwood supplier and price for sheet goods was 80% higher than what it was a year ago. About $100 for 3/4" shop birch domestic (forget the exact amount). I did have a project requiring 3 sheets of ply plus some lumber and just drove away because the total was over $500.

The vendor said that cabinet makers who did fixed price bids were losing money. A number of items, such as marine grade plywood, are not obtainable…so those bins were empty. The hardware inventory was down by half, and business was slow. A number of items such as 1" thick ply were sitting on the shelf, priced beyond what anyone would pay for them. For a while during Covid, the hardwood industry could still provide the goods at nearly the same old price, while construction lumber was skyrocketing. That time is past.

My unfortunate conclusion, and I hope I'm wrong, is that we a period of strong (if not hyper) inflation. Everything is just so expensive. In a few weeks, I will need go back and spend the money to get what I need, and that surely is an aggravating thought.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

We've had very little change in hardwood or plywood at lumber dealer. Construction material at big box store is different story. 2×4x8 highest I recall was $7.48. Today they are $3.98. OSB peaked at $49 and $23 now.


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## mikey3 (May 5, 2021)

Looked at HD 2×4x8 spruce and whitewood 3.98.


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> I can get Birch cheaper than OSB
> 
> https://www.homedepot.com/p/Common-19-32-in-x-4-ft-x-8-ft-Actual-0-578-in-x-47-75-in-x-95-75-in-Oriented-Strand-Board-8107410000000000/309026359?source=shoppingads&locale=en-US&mtc=Shopping-B-F_D21-G-D21-21_1_PLYWOOD-Generic-NA-Feed-LIA-NA-NA-&cm_mmc=Shopping-B-F_D21-G-D21-21_1_PLYWOOD-Generic-NA-Feed-LIA-NA-NA--71700000044150928-58700004609752639-92700041149959765&gclid=Cj0KCQjw5uWGBhCTARIsAL70sLJLJXjf5X1hGDOghD_EMn7howLiiwO5ml8zAwVKwWbUTPxqCY8C7jwaAsyTEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
> 
> - 1thumb


I saw OSB yesterday 1/2" kinda sheet was just under 20 bux, still looked like crappy OSB.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> I saw OSB yesterday 1/2" kinda sheet was just under 20 bux, still looked like crappy OSB.
> 
> - therealSteveN


Is there OSB that isn't crappy?


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## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

Report from the Chicago area.

Baltic birch was back in stock a couple weeks ago but it has doubled in price. Hard maple has also doubled since last year.

Everything is up in general but most items from the hardwood supplier are up 15-30%. The above two are the only ones that I've seen double.

So far I've been able to pass the cost increases to our customers. Everybody knows prices are going up and are not surprised when I have to raise our prices. We've started to bill wood as a separate line item for more of our products and enter the current wood price on the invoice.


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## CWWoodworking (Nov 28, 2017)

so here is the question I have-

If I paid 1-2$ for red oak 4/4 solids for 25 years and 45-50$ for plywood(general) for the same 25 years, is the sudden spike inflation or just a sudden correction of prices?

I remember a lot of things being cheaper(and going up), and wood staying the same. Maybe this sudden sticker shock is just what normal prices should actually be?


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

I would say it is a combination of both. Prices staying the same for 25 years is nice, but unrealistic. The bubble had to burst, everyone in the supply chain has had their costs increase, and they can't eat the increases forever.


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## CaptainKlutz (Apr 23, 2014)

> Just went to my local hardwood supplier and price for sheet goods was 80% higher than what it was a year ago. About $100 for 3/4" shop birch domestic (forget the exact amount). - Sark


+1 Had same sticker shock yesterday. 
3/4" 5×5 cabinet grade BB from Russia was $98 sheet. Lumber manager told me hardwood ply panels are either hard to find, or become very expensive in last 4-6 months. The 1/2 and 3/8 BB was much cheaper by comparison. Was last of his older stock, and price was going up 25% when the current open bundles were gone. Was tempted to grab a couple sheets, but I already have several on hand. What I needed was 3/4" BB. Just my luck….

All the popular domestic hardwoods where up 20-25% .vs. my last visit as well. Manager blamed hardwood price increases as mostly due increased transportation costs. Only thing same price as last visit was some Tigerwood (Goncalo Alves) from nearby Mexico.

Priced some redwood and cedar for custom outdoor shutter project at BORG plus 2 lumberyards, and walked away empty handed every time. Not paying nearly $4 bdft for soft wood, when my wood stash has Cherry/Oak I can use and it cost me less.

Sign of the times I guess?


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> I saw OSB yesterday 1/2" kinda sheet was just under 20 bux, still looked like crappy OSB.
> 
> - therealSteveN
> 
> ...


Good point…


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## therealSteveN (Oct 29, 2016)

> so here is the question I have-
> 
> If I paid 1-2$ for red oak 4/4 solids for 25 years and 45-50$ for plywood(general) for the same 25 years, is the sudden spike inflation or just a sudden correction of prices?
> 
> ...


I've been thinking this all along. All the "BIG" wood industry people said this is where we finally get ours. Also why I don't think there will be a return to "normal" if/when we ever do actually see the end of Mr Covid.

Prior to the last house we built for ourselves a 2×4 was 97 cents. Right after we got done with that house they were $2.69 or so. Pretty much stayed around there until recently. It was far past when most people would have stopped producing, if they couldn't get a pay raise.

Farmers all over America are saying when is it our turn? Meanwhile GM and the car boys are selling JUNK and getting more per vehicle than most of the older population here paid for their first home, far more in many cases. Our economy has been screwed up forever. It's just when a new party finally gets paid that we notice it.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

^ It isn't just the automakers peddling junk. Used trucks specifically have gone through the roof. Around me I'm seeing 3-4 year old chevy and ford 1/2 tons with 60-70K miles for $35-$40K and a SALVAGE title. Those without a salvage title are $10-$12K more. Even the fiat trucks I'm seeing this happen with albeit to a lesser degree.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

I own ford vehicles and don't think they are selling junk. Everything has improved over the years, and I see quality and features. My last f350 had over 300,000 when I traded it in on a newer used f350.


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## tvrgeek (Nov 19, 2013)

Today Studs were $3.98
Picked up 2×12 x 12' SYP for $21 each.


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## moke (Oct 19, 2010)

Used trucks are so high because new trucks are not coming through. Most car lots have very few new vehicles and haven't for a while. My wife special ordered a manual tranny Jeep in May, it still isn't here yet. I asked the lot if it was because it was so late in the year and he said he had others from earlier….


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

Still stuck in high dollarville. 2×4x16 $17


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Just picked up 3 2×6x12' at Menards for 13$. Very nice, very clear for construction lumber.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

$22.65 for 7/16×4x8 OSB at Lowe's is an improvement but 253% of what I paid in March '19, HD has it for the same. The fancy 19/32" 4×8 T&G subfloor is still between $79 & $84. 2×8x8 SYP is $6.72 at both stores as well, that I care about as that's what I need for my mezzanine.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I was in Lowe's this morning and many of the most volatile building products now have electronic price tags on them much like Kohls does with much of their merchandise. I'm a bit surprised it's taken until now to implement this but I did see several of them broken already despite being installed for less than 2 months. I guess peddling lumber is a bit harsher environment than kitchen appliances.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

prices on a lot of material are coming down for sure, good thing, 
there has been a plethora of small cab shops and small vendors in phx area that have decided to close doors, been some good deals on plywood, and general sheet goods if one has a tad of cash and ability to store some goods, hardwoods have not been included, although i did find a large stash of maple for reasonable value. Seems the local slab guys have dipped their prices also, as i picked up some walnut slabs in No. Az for killer price, gonna have fella in no phx run them thru his kiln,

my shop is almost done, well when i say that its lacking AC, which is on back order, but its coming.
looking forward to set up and fine tuning, it that even happens.
happy days are here again at least for now
Rj in az


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## tomsteve (Jan 23, 2015)

> Today Studs were $3.98
> Picked up 2×12 x 12 SYP for $21 each.
> 
> - tvrgeek


#3.18 for a stud in west metro detroit. $5 price drop in less than 4 months.
i paid $73/each for 16 foot 2 by 12s 4 months ago.
down to $32.78 today.

theres gonna be some construction projects in the near future for me. a few people i know have been waiting for the prices to drop


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I am starting to feel a shop expansion coming for me. That's assuming I can get the wife to buy in.


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## splintergroup (Jan 20, 2015)

Right now I'm pondering buying what I need (16' 2×4 @ $18 locally or $10 at Lowes).
Problem is the round trip to Lowes is 140 miles and since I only need 4, the price of fuel kinda kills the savings.
Of course I could visit the HF store close by the Lowes and pick up some brushes and other cosmoline soaked recycled car creations.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

Another drop at local HD. 2×4x8 now $3.48 and 7/16X4X8 OSB $15.25


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

As I stated earlier, the demand has dropped because of high prices, and supply is increasing. Back close to normal soon. Supply and demand is working again.


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## CaptainKlutz (Apr 23, 2014)

+1 If you believe head of BORG collective, demand for building supplies is down:

https://ir.homedepot.com/~/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/reports-and-presentations/quarterly-earnings/2021/2Q21/HD%202Q21%20Transcript_v1.pdf

Although Home Depot's second-quarter earnings and revenue topped forecasts due higher prices, a few stats are INTERESTING: 
- same-store sales growth rose just 3.4% in the US, well below expectations. 
- reported 481.7 million customer transactions, down nearly 6% from the same period a year ago.
- Between lower lumber prices , reduced volume, and external influences; Q3 numbers will be unpredictable. 
- HD brags that buyers are buying more expensive items in store last quarter.

Duh. The Covid build is done and time for bathroom/kitchen fixtures to finish the job!

Good news for hobby wood workers, ominous sign for housing market.

Cheers!


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

P.O.S. 'Sand Ply' is $78 a sheet at HD which is more than birch, oak or maple.

https://www.homedepot.com/p/18mm-Sande-Plywood-3-4-in-Category-x-4-ft-x-8-ft-Actual-0-709-in-x-48-in-x-96-in-454559/203414066


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

$3.25 for a 2×4x8 douglas fir at an LA HD today. Time to frame that shop I've been wanting to build.


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## Lazyman (Aug 8, 2014)

> I was in Lowe s this morning and many of the most volatile building products now have electronic price tags on them much like Kohls does with much of their merchandise. I m a bit surprised it s taken until now to implement this but I* did see several of them broken already despite being installed for less than 2 months. I guess peddling lumber is a bit harsher environment than kitchen appliances.*
> 
> - bigblockyeti


Especially when pissed off customers punch them.


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## Lazyman (Aug 8, 2014)

One thing that I noticed at my local HD while the prices were higher is that the quality of the SYP 2-by lumber seemed to be better. When I checked the prices, I also looked at the stacks themselves and noticed that most were straight and that there were fewer boards in the stack that had the giant half inch growth rings of juvenile wood and pith running through them. I still could not bring myself to buy any but I have to admit I was tempted by the better quality. Of course it could just be the that no one else was buying and picking out all the good stuff.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

2×4x8' $3.06 @ Menards in Illinois today.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Shop addition is starting to get in reach. I may need to start planning.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Almost back to pre virus normal. I don't expect much more of a drop.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Just checked 4×8x7/16 OSB at my local Lowe's and it's gone up from $15.15 to $15.65, apparently the bottom has passed, at least until the recession kicks in.


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## Dark_Lightning (Nov 20, 2009)

> Just checked 4×8x7/16 OSB at my local Lowe s and it s gone up from $15.15 to $15.65, apparently the bottom has passed, at least until the recession kicks in.
> 
> - bigblockyeti


I'm hoping that the recession doesn't kick in until we sell the house my wife's parents bought in '63 for $25k, and has comps at $750k. Woo-Hoo!


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

No recession coming. Think positive!!


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## Gene01 (Jan 5, 2009)

> Just checked 4×8x7/16 OSB at my local Lowe s and it s gone up from $15.15 to $15.65, apparently the bottom has passed, at least until the recession kicks in.
> 
> - bigblockyeti
> 
> ...


Capital gains can be a killer!


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

That was my first thought Gene but Dark lightning will just need to "pay his fair share". That only sounds like a good deal when somebody else is paying it.


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## Lazyman (Aug 8, 2014)

If the house was inherited, I think that the basis is the value on the day the title was transferred which may significantly reduce any capital gains.


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## Dark_Lightning (Nov 20, 2009)

It was paid off in the '90s. We're currently renting it, which is paying for all the work I sunk into it.. It needed a re-roof, rat abatement, and a new electrical panel, among other repairs. It got pretty run down as my parents in law aged. When we took my MiL in with us (Alzheimer's and concomitant dementia) I got the task of doing or supervising a lot of work. It took a couple of years because I'm an old man and we wanted to keep costs down.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Lumber is slowly creeping back up (or rather buying power is diminishing) 7/16×4x8 OSB is now at $17.55 at the blue store, just shy of double the $8.95/sheet I paid in 3/19.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

7/16 osb is $15 at the other blue store, Menards.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

7/16" OSB up to $18.05 now, gas following suit at $3.09/gal, a solid 230% of what I paid last year.


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Supply and demand. Last year people were working from home. Now, people are back to work, trucks are on the road, demand for fuel is up. A good sign for the economy. It's called getting back to normal.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Things were pretty normal in early '19 when I paid $8.95/sheet of 7/16" OSB, then again we weren't trying to "build back better"

In L.A. less than 5 days ago.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

True to some extent but there's an atypical lack of supply due to poor policy choices by the current "administration."



> Supply and demand. Last year people were working from home. Now, people are back to work, trucks are on the road, demand for fuel is up. A good sign for the economy. It s called getting back to normal.
> 
> - ibewjon


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Yeah, the manufactured supply chain problem, especially the container ships parked off the CA coast is profiting few while costing many.

I'm under no false assumption that gasoline should have fallen below $1.35/gal last year and if the rapid spike is a correction, I'd be fine with it provided it leveled out to something reasonable. It will not, at least until the next crisis drives prices super low.

The $8.95/sheet for 7/16 OSB was not artificially low, it was what it should have cost and today the correct price would be somewhere just below $11/sheet but it never got the chance to drop that low due to the few profiting from the many.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

lumber market is still up and down, what i priced for a house two weeks ago, went down almost 1k end of last week, have two others pricing out this week, anxious to see which direction it went. although trusses have stayed at their covid high for sure, and some plywood is hard to get, zip panels are tough, ccx plywood is also getting slim pickens.

mdf trim seems to be okay in value, hasn't gone up much but vendor says just a matter of time,

gas is almost 3.50 a gal at the higher end here in phx. i filled four trucks yesterday at sams club for about 3.25 i think it was a bit under 3.30 i believe, fryes (kroger) was 3.19 with my customer down charge.

fuel ugly cost, wife is in sacramento comi land, and its almost 7.50 gal. ugly stuff for sure. and absolutely no reason for it other than very poor management
Rj in az


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## Gene01 (Jan 5, 2009)

RJ, come to Tucson! We're at 3.09. 
Ya can't expect decent gas prices when you cut domestic production.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

> RJ, come to Tucson! We re at 3.09.
> Ya can t expect decent gas prices when you cut domestic production.
> 
> - Gene Howe


i'm betting our up in price is due to the fact you folks have the big gal line going thru the city, or maybe i'm wrong, and phoenix just has a buncha greedie sobs, raking in the dugats.
best for the ole pueblo


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> fuel ugly cost, wife is in sacramento comi land, and its almost 7.50 gal. ugly stuff for sure. and absolutely no reason for it other than very poor management
> Rj in az
> 
> - Knockonit


That actually sounds like very de*lib*erate management coupled with predictable and sustained greed.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

just got a quote in pressure treated lumber is up 50.00 buck a thousand
dang it


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## JRsgarage (Jan 2, 2017)

> I m hoping that the recession doesn t kick in until we sell the house my wife s parents bought in 63 for $25k, and has comps at $750k. Woo-Hoo!
> 
> - Dark_Lightning
> 
> ...


Especially if this administration gets it there way and doubles capital gains tax to 40%!


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## JRsgarage (Jan 2, 2017)

> If the house was inherited, I think that the basis is the value on the day the title was transferred which may significantly reduce any capital gains.
> 
> - Lazyman


Joe and his cronies want to get rid of "Step Up" rule so so all inheritances will be valued at original time of purchase…


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

I'm far from a tax law expert but agree with this. A few years back, we went through similar with my mother's house and basis was FMV at time my sisters and I obtained procession of house. We also sunk a lot of money into renovations before selling it and those were added to the basis - any material expenses, contractor expenses, etc. We could not add our sweat equity though, which was pretty substantial.

See https://www.irs.gov/faqs/interest-dividends-other-types-of-income/gifts-inheritances/gifts-inheritances



> If the house was inherited, I think that the basis is the value on the day the title was transferred which may significantly reduce any capital gains.
> 
> - Lazyman


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

Figures…



> If the house was inherited, I think that the basis is the value on the day the title was transferred which may significantly reduce any capital gains.
> 
> - Lazyman
> 
> ...


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> Joe and his cronies want to get rid of "Step Up" rule so so all inheritances will be valued at original time of purchase…
> 
> - JRsgarage


I saw that and realize it's targeted (supposed to be) at those with many millions in assets when passing but will dig pretty deep into those with just a couple million when dying effectively fleecing their heirs. Compounding the problem is the weak (and weakening) dollar when needed for tuition or housing.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I can provide an address and date if you'd like. It's also 17.2 miles but I know math is oppressive in CA. Pro tip; $59M is a cash deal.


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## Underdog (Oct 29, 2012)

I've been tracking the price of SYP 2×12x16' because I'm thinking about building a workbench. Before COVID it was $45, and after that it went up to $69, and recently it came down to $33, and now it's at $26.

That's a pretty wild fluctuation.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

> A typical ********************post meme from someone who lives 3000 miles from Los Angeles. I m in the city limits of LA, and the stations near my house are around $4.50 right now. But keep on spreading misinformation. ********************erberg is relying upon you to help pay the mortgage on his Tahoe vacation house.
> 
> - skatefriday


Apparently it doesn't take much to get you worked up this morning.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

^ Hey, if I was forced to live in LA, I'd probably have a pretty bad attitude as well. Not sure if I could as readily make so many assumptions, that's an aquired skill.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> ^ Hey, if I was forced to live in LA, I d probably have a pretty bad attitude as well. Not sure if I could as readily make so many assumptions, that s an aquired skill.
> 
> - bigblockyeti


Good to know that the Lumberjocks moderators will take down posts that call out ********************post misinformation but won't take down the misinformation post as well.

Really, how hard is it to pick a single outlier photo from Los Angeles that supports a false narrative, drop that photo in an amazon storage bucket, and then get people who live in South Carolina to spread that photo as if it's the gospel throughout Los Angeles? This is how we end up where we are.

I really do expect better, and it is disappointing that LumberJocks is enabling it.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I think there is one gas station in that general area that every news outlet refers to only because it is the highest price and they always say "one gas station has…" This is probably that one station. It is unlikely that you will ever buy gas there but it is what it is and you are just going to deal wit it. Trash talking other LJ's and moderators over it is not likely to win any bonus points.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I never stated it was all of L.A., that was your false assumption. I still have a date range and an address for those interested. The story was from the L.A. Times, 17.2 miles driving from that station to the office in El Segundo.

You used profanity (twice now) and that's against the rules, whining your post was removed after that displays ignorance or malicious intent. If your command of the English language is of the strength you feel you have to use profanity to get your point across, more power to you, here it's not allowed.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB heading back up and gaining momentum, currently at $22.35 at the local Lowe's, *up 47.5%* from 3.5 months ago. Unfortunately we're no longer leading inflation but rather living it.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB at the same Lowe's is now $25.85 today, up +15.6% in just *4 days!* Prices didn't escalate this quickly at any time during the virus before. Part of me wants the speculators to get burned really, really bad, a different part realizes my taxes will just bail them out if they are, yay more inflation.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB now at $27.05/sheet at Lowe's, HD is the same but in Raleigh, NC for some reason it's still at $25.85/sheet. This is a trend I'd rather *not* see here first.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

Middle GA area is at $26.95 for 7/16X4X8 OSB. I think lowest I saw end of summer was just shy of $15


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB now at $32.45/sheet at Lowe's, up another *20% in 12 days*! It's making a run, *up over 114% in 5 months*.


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## JAAune (Jan 22, 2012)

Possibly related to Canada's new border-crossing restrictions that were supposed to go into effect for truckers this January. There are also a lot of Canadians protesting that at the moment so it's likely lumber buyers are pricing reduced supply into the equation.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I'm sure that's part of it, and if they'd cut prices when theses are no longer issues it would be understandable. I suspect they won't be, such is life. I've got to clear off my trailer to pick up another load of logs tomorrow to feed my sawmill.


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## waho6o9 (May 6, 2011)

Truck on Canada!


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB now at $36.55/sheet at Lowe's, up another 12.6% in 3 days! Up over 141% in 5 months.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB now at $43.07/sheet at Lowe's, up another 17.8% in 2 days! Up over 184% in 5 months.

I know this seems ridiculous and I wish I was making it up, sadly that's not the case.


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## bbc557ci (Sep 20, 2012)

> Truck on Canada!
> 
> - waho6o9


Yup, and I hope our guys do the same.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8'x7/16" OSB now at $46.35/sheet at Lowe's, up another 7.6% in 7 days! Up over 205% in 5.5 months.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

> I m sure that s part of it, and if they d cut prices when theses are no longer issues it would be understandable. I suspect they won t be, such is life. I ve got to clear off my trailer to pick up another load of logs tomorrow to feed my sawmill.
> 
> - bigblockyeti


You can suspect all you want, but prices are still, as of today 22% below the peak of summer 2021. Lumber prices are highly demand sensitive. Falling demand, falling prices. The current price increases are due to supply pressures from mills that are still not at full capacity. The mills are now capturing the delta between milled lumber and logs on the stump. Why? Because they can.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

all that is missing is a sticker of you know who
saying'' i did that'', ya know

rj in az


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

It is supply and demand. NOT political.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> I m sure that s part of it, and if they d cut prices when theses are no longer issues it would be understandable. I suspect they won t be, such is life. I ve got to clear off my trailer to pick up another load of logs tomorrow to feed my sawmill.
> 
> - bigblockyeti
> 
> ...


I'm looking at one metric, I don't give a gosh darn about dimensional lumber as I now make my own. Yes, OSB is less now than the early summer '21 peak and it can only be assumed (based on your opinion) that demand dropped significantly to allow OSB to fall from over $54/sheet at the peak to $15.15/sheet in early September '21. The demand hasn't changed much if any from September until now at $37.75/sheet. This price is a massive drop, over 18% in just 4 days which is a good sign, gasoline is making a rapid run in the opposite direction to make up for it though.

I would be great if it were just a function of supply and demand, I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing that I'm no long naive enough to believe it's just that simple.


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

You have to understand that day-to-day retail pricing has to be elastic because the replacement cost has to be paid by the current inventory. Thus the daily cost is the anticipated future cost. The trucker protest has added volatility, delays, and direct shipping costs to Canadian lumber imports - which is a *lot* - esp. pine based raw materials.

The volatility is *all* political on the Norte side of the border. When a fair agreement is reached, prices will stabilize no matter how it lands - stability is needed, the market is nervous and speculative until this is all resolved.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

Political policy has huge influence on supply.



> It is supply and demand. NOT political.
> 
> - ibewjon


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Is claiming a virus is fake till the economy crashes and fuel prices drop an example of the political policy you speak of?


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

I made a statement… read into it what you want.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I understand the elasticity in getting (& keeping) stock but this is getting ridiculous. Yesterday's price, less than 14 hours ago, was apparently a blip as 7/16" x 4' x 8' OSB has gone back up, now at $40.35/sheet. It's almost as if accountant are setting an upper and lower limit then taping random numbers in between to a dart board and letting luck of the draw set the price for that day.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

i get pricing daily on most nominal lumber for small remodel and framing jobs, the change is significant in some sizes almost every other day, glue lam beams, well now if you can get them, special order is months, so one is stuck with the std camber on most larger ones, and solid beams , quality is horrible and wet as can be, rough sawn, boy howdy again wet and hard to get good straight pcs.

I was chatting with a truss manuf. yesterday, they have been having quality issues, on about 30% of their truss packages, mostly due to lumber issues, is the tale, but…...........being short handed and using mostly very unskilled assemblers, stuff does happen, don't ask, as i know first hand about the unskilled part.
best to all on material and whatever else ails you
rj in az

and a friend who frames production homes says his lumber price for each unit goes up about 6% a week, some of the bigger ones he says are around 14% in just lumber, and hardware, guess its going up big time, you know that STEEL thing, ugly stuff, gonna get to where a regular wage earner wont' be able to find his/her dream, owning a pc of real estate with their castel, shame, as that my friends is '' true American freedom'' owning ones own home, jmo though
rj


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## MadMark (Jun 3, 2014)

Fox Business Headline 17Feb22:


> *Housing inflation, supply chain create builders' perfect storm
> Lumber prices over the past year added over $18,600 to the average price of a new single-family home: NAHB*


Link HERE

Breitbart Headline 17Feb22:


> *New Home Construction Unexpectedly Plunges as Bidenflation Pushes Costs Through The Roof*


Link HERE

_Softwood lumber prices are up 20.1 percent over the past 12 months_


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

^ Both were interesting reads looking at what amounts to the same problem from different perspectives. I'm more glad than ever that I've invested in a sawmill to curtail some of my lumber expenses.


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

last week i was paying 31. a lf for glue lam beam 5.25×15'' per foot, today priced out at almost 41.00 plus the governors take

and housing here did take a small dip, but mostly due to available crews to do the work, all home builders are choking on no help from most trades, ugly times for builders boon time for vendors, if they have the stock to sell

rj


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I paid $92 for a 1 3/4" x 9 1/2" x 24' LVL on 8/6/20 for the ridge beam of my shed, I have no idea what it is today but I'm reasonably certain it's more.

4'x8'x7/16" OSB now at $42.93/sheet at Lowe's, hoping it's again peaked and will head back down or go to $500/sheet.


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## moke (Oct 19, 2010)

I hope you are right…but I don't think the BORG got the memo….


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## Knockonit (Nov 5, 2017)

well for sure its going up once or twice a week, my big nominal lumber supplier salesman advised to not quote anything over 1 week, and to add a percentage to cover me keyster in case it got ugly in just one week.

it'll slow down a lot of building for sure, which for me is ok, i'm trying to finish up some projects and close it down, lack of talent and attitudes of employees, has taken all the fun outta my career choice
rj in az


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## moke (Oct 19, 2010)

RJ, I had a different business….I don't think attitude and talent lacking are exclusive to your business. If you get out, I would just work for someone….that eliminates a bunch of headaches as you can imagine.

After I retired I quit taking sleeping pills and found I could sleep all on my own without the stress.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

OSB was lower yesterday at $41.92 then went back up today $42.95, like a high freqency low amplitude roller coaster. I'm sure the Russia mess will some how justify further cost increases on more things than not. The safe explaination will as usual be supply and demand, cherry picking whatever data requires minimal manipulation to support the excuse.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

I knew we were in trouble when they got those price signs that can be changed on the fly like the prices at the pump.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

OSB continuing to ride the rollercoaster is now at $44.97 and for a variety of reasons I suspect still going up vs. making a downturn. Like before, I hope I'm wrong but I'm planning for the opposite as my needs fluctuate.


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## skatefriday (May 5, 2014)

The lumber roller coaster continues.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3817773-lumber-prices-plunge-28-in-three-weeks-as-housing-market-cools

I'd expect to see prices start falling as retail yards sell through their existing inventory.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Lumber is down over 23% in the past month but OSB is at $47.95/sheet, up over 300% since September. If people are willing to pay whatever artificially high price is being marketed then there's no reason to drop the price. The demand in my area anyway is particularly strong.

I just checked and the Lowes by where my in-laws live just outside of cleveland is exactly $5 cheaper which makes sense, that's one of the area people are flocking from.


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## hotbyte (Apr 3, 2010)

South of Atlanta, OSB is $46.85. It's been hanging there a while. 2X4X8 running $7.85.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

The price of OSB has been steadily falling though the rate of housing construction in this area certainly isn't pushing it down. Right now it's $34.95/sheet at the local big blue retail giant despite lumber futures falling just shy of 41% in the last year.

Crude and Brent have for the (short) moment stabilized at ~$103 & $105.5 per barrel respectively but regular unleaded gasoline is consistently at $4.099/gallon at every pump close to me which is the highest price I've seen in my life and completely unsubstantiated with the current oil prices. I hope several people buying many Gulfstream G650's with these price discrepancies.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

OSB is down yet again to $28.35/sheet, another $19 down and it'll be back where it was the last time I needed several sheets in '19. By then it'll cost me $40 in gas to make the 3 mile trek to then back from Lowes.


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## TylerKotar (8 mo ago)

I really hope we see building materials start to fall. I use MDF often and a 1/2 sheet use be $20 pre covid and now it's $50 and i've yet to see it budge in the past year. I just don't know if we will ever get it down to where it use to be or even close, i'll be happy at $30 now a days since I have to use it often for work.


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## Sark (May 31, 2017)

Housing market will be tanking soon due to rising interest rates. Expect that recessionary pressure will lower prices. Won't be 2007 again (that one put me out of business) but it will be similar.


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

I hate to burst your bubble Sark, but the housing market will not burst and the talking heads sensationalize the news in order to increase ratings. Unlike 2007, we are in a housing shortage rather than a housing bubble and here's why - 
1. After the the meltdown in 2007, the home building industry pretty much shut down due to lack of large project financing so really no meaningful building between 2007 and 2015.

2. The baby boomers are not downsizing since there is no place to go

3. The millennials are firmly in the market - projected to be the highest population in history

4. Generation Z is entering the market.

All this spells a housing shortage of 4.5 million to 6.5 million homes. Values will not increase 15 -20% as they have the past couple of years as it is unsustainable, but values will continue to increase 5-10% annually. There are simply not enough homes to meet demand for a growing population so don't believe the talking heads because they are talking out of the other end. A recession is very possible, but not housing detraction.


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## BurlyBob (Mar 13, 2012)

Last week I bought a 1×8 pine-$22. Totally insane.


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## Sark (May 31, 2017)

Bladedust, you may be right. The run up of housing prices has left home owners with huge amounts of equity which they could convert into cash. In the housing bubble that's how many of my customers paid for the work…just wrote equity checks. But this time around, I think it will be more difficult


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## Dark_Lightning (Nov 20, 2009)

I'm buying real wood furniture from the ReStore for projects…scored some REALLY nice QSWO that way, awhile back.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> I hate to burst your bubble Sark, but the housing market will not burst
> 
> - bladedust


It's the interest/mortgage rates and inflation this time around. Fourteen years of 'emergency' monetary/fiscal policy put into place to 'save' Wall St so you can save Main st may soon blow up. MMT is not real


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> I hate to burst your bubble Sark, but the housing market will not burst
> 
> - bladedust


'Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports a 6.5% week-over-week drop in mortgage applications - the fourth straight weekly drop - to its lowest since 2000. Purchases fell more than refis, tumbling 6.1%'

Fewer mortgage applications now then in the peak crisis times circa 2009 when interest/mortgage rates were higher


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

Yes 1thumb, I am feeling it since this is what I do for a living for 20+ years. The main reason applications are down is due to lack of inventory. I must have 75+ pre-qualifications out there with folks that cannot find a house to buy. I see folks offering 15% above asking price and still losing the bidding wars.

The fact remains we are in a housing shortage and the simple law of supply and demand dictates values will continue to rise; perhaps not at the same rate we saw in the past couple of years, but they will continue to rise non the less.


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## TravisH (Feb 6, 2013)

> I hate to burst your bubble Sark, but the housing market will not burst
> 
> - bladedust
> 
> ...


"We" bought a house for my mother in law earlier this year. I believe in total we put in 6 cash offers on different houses last year and all were either not listed yet or day one listing. Never had a chance.

It was frustrating trying explaining to a 77 year old the world has changed. She was wanting to go in under and haggle. My wife put in one offer at listing and then told her mom no more. Everything needed to be as mentioned above 15 to 20% more than asking. My mother in law wasn't happy but we explained it was a waste of our time and the relator if she wasn't serious about buying a home. She was convinced since it was a cash offer people would jump at it.

Has cooled off significantly in my area overall but some house price ranges still very strong in sells. It would appear that for many that were on the edge of that next tier of housing prices were sitting out last year. For my area it is estimated the market is overvalued about 25%.

I don't see the prices tanking but just will be slow moving for existing homes and they will lower prices. Problem is new homes always getting built unless a community stops the sprawl. Money too easy to get.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> Money too easy to get.
> 
> - TravisH


In one year, borrowing costs for a $400k home w/20% down with a 30 year fixed have increased by a third. $1200 mortgage then now is $1600 as mortgage rates have increased from a paltry 3% to a meager 5%. The last time inflation, the CPI was this high mortgage rates were at 12%. Road ahead might get a little bumpy and not just for home prices.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU083


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

> In one year, borrowing costs for a $400k home w/20% down with a 30 year fixed have increased by a third. $1200 mortgage then now is $1600 as mortgage rates have increased from a paltry 3% to a meager 5%. The last time inflation, the CPI was this high mortgage rates were at 12%. Road ahead might get a little bumpy and not just for home prices.
> - 1thumb


I'd love to see 12% but I have money I'd like to drop into viable bonds and I owe on nothing but the house that I could pay off this afternoon if it made sense to.


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

Yes 1thumb, I am feeling it since this is what I do for a living for 20+ years. The main reason applications are down is due to lack of inventory. I must have 75+ pre-qualifications out there with folks that cannot find a house to buy. I see folks offering 15% above asking price and still losing the bidding wars.

The fact remains we are in a housing shortage and the simple law of supply and demand dictates values will continue to rise; perhaps not at the same rate we saw in the past couple of years, but they will continue to rise non the less.

Sorry, double post


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

OSB continues to fall, now at $24.95. Lumber futures have dropped almost 45% in the last month and are now sitting at $556/Mbdft.


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## Tony1212 (Aug 26, 2013)

> ...The main reason applications are down is due to lack of inventory. I must have 75+ pre-qualifications out there with folks that cannot find a house to buy. ...
> 
> - bladedust


In this context, what does "lack of inventory" mean? That there are absolutely no houses on the market? Or the houses these 75+ buyers want is out of their price range and they are not willing to "settle" for something they can afford now? Or is this specifically about new construction which is what was really driving the lumber prices up?

I hope this doesn't come off as contrarian. I'm honestly curious. I'm constantly getting post cards from real estate agents exclaiming about selling a house that I never even knew was on the market. But there are still plenty of houses around me that have sat on the market for quite awhile. These houses are typically run down and not very pretty, or not in a good area. But with everything I've heard about the housing market in the last 6 months, I figured someone would have grabbed these houses, like first time buyers, and lower middle class families and such.


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## bladedust (Mar 12, 2012)

Hey Tony, nope, not coming off as contrarian at all and I'm happy to clarify.
Lack of inventory is just that….there are not enough houses for sale in comparison to buyers wanting to buy and has nothing to do with affordability. Each individual sets their purchase price parameters based on payment comfort and/or affordability. I have buyers in price ranges from $200k to over $1mm and with the same issue of not enough inventory in their price range. When a house goes on the market, there is feeding frenzy of well over 20 offers in a matter of hours, some with well above asking price and many of the offers are for cash, which is king.

Of course, this will vary from market to market. As for the houses in your area, the "run down" houses are typically picked up by investors and if they are sitting, it tells me they are either overpriced or need substantially more work than investor is willing to put into it which cuts in to their profit. There is also location in that many folks have departed large metropolitan areas for the sun belt since most can work remotely now, which may be contributing to inventory excess in your area. I hope this helps.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

I'm wondering how many people (that are selling) are pricing closer to the astronomical price they could get or starting closer to a semi-normal market price and planning on it being bid up? There's a house in my neighborhood for sale for $630K that was built and sold for $360K new in '19. It's a bigger house at just shy of 4Ksqft. but this would be the most expensive house sold in the neighborhood and I suspect they'll get it with over 99 saves in 12 days on zillow. I've considered putting my house up for a ridiculous number knowing that from that, I'd have to move twice and rent for ~6 months while building a house that I suspect would cost ~$700K to build right now. The dollars and cents just don't make sense for me to put myself or my family through that right now but I do have a ridiculous number in mind that I would absolutely sell for if someone approached me wanted to buy my house that's currently not for sale. I suspect I'm not alone given the chaotic market.

Mom and dad had their house built in '14 on 12 acres with a detached garage with an apartment above it. The realtor charmed them, brought in an appraiser of his picking and assigned a low value for his benefit. They sold for between ~$150K-200K under what it could have gone for had it been correctly priced and marketed, it would have taken no more than 3 additional days to achieve offers of at least $200K more. Too many smooth talking realtors just don't care and are very comfortable preying on those that can afford to give away their assests at an unwarranted market discount.

My inlaws are in a similar situation where their resistance to updating the interior over the years has gotten their house on the market for 20-25% less than comps in the same neighborhood having sold within the last three months. An investor (you'll own nothing and be happy) picked it up and asked for $7K back due to the roof age (still protecting perfectly) and water marks (not damage) on the unfinished basement ceiling from a washer install that leaked a year ago. There was no pushback at all which I still can't understand. The realtor who's only looking out for themselves with a quick sale pocketed I understand but not so much from my inlaws who had multiple offers already.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

Yesterday we saw the biggest 1-day increase in 2Y yields since Lehman. Today we saw the same in 10y yields.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

OSB holding but lumber down again at $527/Mbdft.


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

This thread brings back memories. I bought my house in 1981 and was in a hurry to "lock in" at 15%. At the time was in the home improvement industry and when the rates were at 20% the worst thing that could happen was an announcement that rates would soon drop. Nobody would borrow money right before a forecast rate drop. The only thing we had was work people could pay for without a loan. Something else to factor in to this math is a lot of rental property has been built in the last decade. There are a lot of young people that live month to month and do very little investing or wealth building. Apartment are going up all over the place here and the rents are between $1200 ~ $2000, While rates were low you could buy a hose for that payment amount. But the requires credit, down payment and commitment, not popular with some these days. Oh by the way my rent was $260 back then too.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

> rents are between $1200 ~ $2000, While rates were low you could buy a hose for that payment amount.
> - controlfreak


If you had $60k, or the 20% equivalent for down payment you could buy a house for that rental amount. Where I'm at, $300k gets you a place in the hood where gunshots ring out nightly.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

'JUST IN - German producer price inflation surges to 33.6 percent in May, the highest level ever recorded since 1949.'


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## BurlyBob (Mar 13, 2012)

I bought a 2×4 yesterday from a local lumber yard…$6.50. Down from almost $10 a month or so back. Isn't that special?


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Well, OSB had creeped down to $17.55 then $17.25/sheet and someone forgot to let the big blue store know we're in a recession and it's now at $24.85/sheet and surprise surprise, both stores within 10 miles of me have lots on hand. It's still $17.55/sheet at the BORG 1 miles from the further blue store from me. Lumber has dropped 22.94% in the last month at right now sits at $493.20/1000bdft. someone didn't get the message!


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## controlfreak (Jun 29, 2019)

Inflation, to many dollars chasing to few goods. That rests on politicians in Washington. IMO


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## ibewjon (Oct 2, 2010)

Many new retirees with newfound access to retirement accounts and buying what they couldn't during child raising years has nothing to do with the government. We have been retired a little over three years, and enjoying newfound financial freedoms with the kids gone and the house and college paid off. I am one of too many buyers waiting for a new truck since February. Nothing to do with the government.


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## Cricket (Jan 15, 2014)

Please stop posting political comments.

This discussion is about the price of lumber, nothing more.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

4'x8' OSB still holding @ $17.55/sheet but lumber is down another 5% over the last month closing at $509/Mbdft yesterday. Someone's making out pretty good on low cost with high retail. The gasoline folks are winning by a greater margin with refined gasoline closing yesterday at ~$2.40/gallon and retail pump prices still over $3.30/gallon in many parts of the country.


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## 1thumb (Jun 30, 2012)

Yield on the US 10 year spinning like a wheel. When that breaks, hide the wife and kids. No longer a 'debt bubble' but a debt neutron bomb. Drop and cover! Look at the monetary base in the 1970's which was last time inflation was this high and 30 year fixed were at 10% on their way to 18%.


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## bigblockyeti (Sep 9, 2013)

Whatever drives lumber prices down, I'm all for it. If I could get 10% or better on a CD, that would make me very happy!


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## Underdog (Oct 29, 2012)

I've been watching the price of 2x12 x 16' S4S kiln dried construction lumber. The price today is $18.98. This is the least expensive I've seen it since I started tracking it a couple years ago. The highest point was somewhere around $70.
That's a pretty wide spread...


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