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Hurricane Harvey effect on wood prices

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Forum topic by Mainiac Matt posted 09-08-2017 08:12 PM 1584 views 0 times favorited 31 replies Add to Favorites Watch
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Mainiac Matt

7221 posts in 2084 days


09-08-2017 08:12 PM

This is becoming a predictable pattern, as where I work, we saw the same thing after Katrina and Andrew….

The huge volume of plywood shipped into TX and FL to board everything up and the predicted multi-year effect of the demand for lumber products to re-build are rapidly driving up prices.

Where I work, we consume a tractor-trailer flatbed of plywood every other week and we’re already being told that 1/2” CDX is oversold and unavailable. (This is really going to hurt our business, which has been booming).

We also fabricate Polyethylene foam and HDPE (both petroleum based products) and 80% of all Texas ethylene production is now off line.

I’m kicking myself for not having my ducks in a row to build a large 3-season porch addition this summer, as I think my cut list is going to cost quite a bit more to fill next summer.

I feel terrible for the peeps in TX and FL who’s lives have/are being turned upside down by these disasters…. and now I’m wondering how it’s going to affect the entire nation.

:^(

-- Pine is fine, but Oak's no joke!


31 replies so far

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TungOil

608 posts in 250 days


#1 posted 09-08-2017 08:22 PM

I think we will definitely see a spike in construction grade lumber prices and tight availability. Hopefully it does not impact furniture grade hardwood prices too much.

-- The optimist says "the glass is half full". The pessimist says "the glass is half empty". The engineer says "the glass is twice as big as it needs to be"

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Mainiac Matt

7221 posts in 2084 days


#2 posted 09-08-2017 08:31 PM

We had problems getting 5/4 hardwood in the past, as it was being re-directed from the industrial products stream (i.e. pallets) to the hard wood flooring mills.

-- Pine is fine, but Oak's no joke!

View MrRon's profile

MrRon

4308 posts in 2999 days


#3 posted 09-09-2017 08:12 PM

I bought $800 worth of lumber 3 weeks ago for a deck I’m building. I’ll bet that cost has gone up at least 20%.

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Just_Iain

154 posts in 171 days


#4 posted 09-09-2017 09:08 PM

Thank God Trump wants to protect US Lumber interests by renegotiating the amount of Lumber from Canada in NAFTA (i.e. this translate into making Canadian Lumber more expensive).

-- For those about to die, remember your bicycle helmet!

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Mainiac Matt

7221 posts in 2084 days


#5 posted 09-09-2017 10:04 PM

Well, up here in Maniac land, our forrest products industry has been devastated by state subsidized Canadian lumber products. Maine loggers and mills won a legal trade dispute, but it took years to litigate and many went under in the interim. So they appreciate Trump enforcing “fair” trade.

-- Pine is fine, but Oak's no joke!

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MrRon

4308 posts in 2999 days


#6 posted 09-12-2017 05:23 PM

I have found that the Canadian lumber is of better quality than the locally harvested lumber.

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Mainiac Matt

7221 posts in 2084 days


#7 posted 09-12-2017 06:06 PM

They have huge coniferous forests in New Brunswick, as they do in northern Maine and often the Canadian lumber is sent into Mainiac land to be milled.

The Maine loggers are disappearing fast however, as their Canadian counterparts are subsidized by their provincial government. This is primarily accomplished because the province “owns” the land and lets the loggers have access to it for free (or next to nothing). While in the U.S., the greenies have successfully shut down most Federal and State forests to commercial logging and privately held forests (usually owned by large paper companies) sell loggers access to the timber at a premium.

Another method of indirect subsidy is that the Canadian loggers don’t have to pay for health insurance for their employees.

So there’s no wonder that the mills buy their logs from Canada, where they can be harvested for much less.

Trump hasn’t just waved a magic wand and said that he’ll slap a tariff on Canadian lumber. This has been an ongoing trade dispute for decades and it has worked it’s way through the courts and the American loggers won. But any trade victory in court is meaningless, unless the Federal government decides to enforce it. With court cases dragging on and week kneed enforcement wringing their hands, most Maine loggers have gone out of business and moved on. And the northern part of the state has become a huge welfare drain on the rest of the state, which is prospering.

And that my friends, is the rest of the story.

-- Pine is fine, but Oak's no joke!

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JayT

5404 posts in 1966 days


#8 posted 09-12-2017 08:02 PM

I feel your pain. We have a lumberyard at one of the stores where I work and are being told that OSB will be near impossible to get for the foreseeable future. That’s going to put a serious dent in new home construction, which was already struggling.

-- In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock. Thomas Jefferson

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bruc101

1195 posts in 3297 days


#9 posted 09-12-2017 08:07 PM

Our small valley is backed up to national forest land. The only tree that can be cut on it is down and dead, and then you have to get a firewood permit to do that. A few years ago they stopped that because a few people got caught abusing their permits and cutting live trees.

This pic shows what we found trying to get out of our valley this morning after Irma produced us 60 mph winds last night, and it’s just one of many and a few power poles that went down along the same road. This is almost where our road crosses the top of a mountain. We understand the other side looks the same way. So, we are stuck going out that way until the trees are removed. then comes the replacing of power poles and lines. That way is almost 7 miles to pavement, the other way out is about 15 miles to pavement. We call this, mountain living,

National forest land on the left, power poles on the right. Lot of good lumber and firewood lying across our road today.

Hope all of our jocks are ok.

-- Bruce Free Plans http://plans.sawmillvalley.org

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Mainiac Matt

7221 posts in 2084 days


#10 posted 09-12-2017 08:13 PM

I personally believe that our government managed forest lands have been mismanaged for decades…

We won’t allow any logging and then we wonder why we get these massive out of control wild fires.

I’d love to hear an estimate how many tons of carbon are being spit into the atmosphere by these fires….

-- Pine is fine, but Oak's no joke!

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bruc101

1195 posts in 3297 days


#11 posted 09-12-2017 08:22 PM


I personally believe that our government managed forest lands have been mismanaged for decades…

We won t allow any logging and then we wonder why we get these massive out of control wild fires.

I d love to hear an estimate how many tons of carbon are being spit into the atmosphere by these fires….

- Mainiac Matt

Last summer, we had ashes falling all over us and our homes because of massive forest fires on a mountain north of us. It burned 1000’s of forest land and had 100’s of fire fighters in here working on it. This year we can see a lot of new grow tress sprouting up where it burned.

The forest floor had not had planned burns in years, against government rules now. The floor was covered in dry leaves and limbs because of the no planned burns anymore.

-- Bruce Free Plans http://plans.sawmillvalley.org

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JADobson

874 posts in 1866 days


#12 posted 09-12-2017 08:41 PM

Quoted from a national newscast (Global TV):

At the heart of the trade quarrel is that the majority of Canadian lumber comes from Crown lands, managed by provincial governments. In the U.S. timber is harvested from private lands meaning the stumpage price is generally higher.

The U.S. Lumber Coalition, a powerful lobby group, claims this has led to Canada’s pricing of lumber being artificially low. The Canadian government maintains that timber sold at Crown auctions are designed to reflect market rates.

“What they are saying in the U.S. is the Canadian government is essentially giving this land away cheaper than it should be and that is an illegal subsidy,” BMO economist Alex Koustas told Global News. “However, it’s been established through a number of panels and resolution panels that is not the case.”

Both resolution panels from the World Trade Organization and under the North American Free Trade Agreement had found that Canadian softwood lumber production is not subsidized.

-- No craft is very far from the line beyond which is magic. -- Lord Dunsany

View RobS888's profile

RobS888

2263 posts in 1600 days


#13 posted 09-12-2017 09:03 PM



Well, up here in Maniac land, our forrest products industry has been devastated by state subsidized Canadian lumber products. Maine loggers and mills won a legal trade dispute, but it took years to litigate and many went under in the interim. So they appreciate Trump enforcing “fair” trade.

- Mainiac Matt


I thought the WTO ruled on Canada’s side 3 times. So the “victories” have gone back and forth. I’ve been told that Canadian lumber is much preferred for paper products, I was told it has longer fibers.

What is the difference in stump fees between Maine and New Brunswick?

-- I always suspected many gun nuts were afraid of something, just never thought popcorn was on the list.

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Manitario

2483 posts in 2638 days


#14 posted 09-12-2017 09:07 PM


Both resolution panels from the World Trade Organization and under the North American Free Trade Agreement had found that Canadian softwood lumber production is not subsidized.

- JADobson

Yep, exactly. The mis-information that Canadian lumber is government subsidized has been spread for years by the US lumber producer lobby. Many of the economic predictions of the effect of closing the US market to Canadian softwood will be an increase in price in construction lumber in the US due to decreased supply.

-- Sometimes the creative process requires foul language. -- Charles Neil

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RobS888

2263 posts in 1600 days


#15 posted 09-12-2017 09:09 PM


Last summer, we had ashes falling all over us and our homes because of massive forest fires on a mountain north of us. It burned 1000 s of forest land and had 100 s of fire fighters in here working on it. This year we can see a lot of new grow tress sprouting up where it burned.

The forest floor had not had planned burns in years, against government rules now. The floor was covered in dry leaves and limbs because of the no planned burns anymore.

- bruc101


I was under the impression that wild fires are good for a forest. I can’t remember the exact reason, but after many decades of fighting any forrest fire it is preferred to let them burn. Returns a lot of stuff back to the ground ready to start the cycle again. As your seeing.

-- I always suspected many gun nuts were afraid of something, just never thought popcorn was on the list.

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